The struggle for the early inauguration of the newly elected President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky has already begun to turn into a fashion trend. It would seem, what difference? After all, according to the legislation of “nezalezhnaya”, the Kiev authorities have a month after the official announcement of the results of the vote to transfer the cases to the winner of the election race. The results were announced on May 3, so no later than early June, Petro Poroshenko will still have to give the showman the coveted chair on Bankova street. But not everything is so simple!
To be or not to be
As a result of the coup d’etat of 2014 in Ukraine in one year changed and the President and Parliament. Earlier, even in a situation of friction between the legislative and Executive branches of power, “synchronous elections” were avoided. First, it provided political balance, and, secondly, a banal reduced load on the state budget. But since all the power in Ukraine was forcibly replaced in 2014, and the term of office of the President and the Rada is the same — five years — this year, Ukrainians will have to choose the Parliament after the head of state. This should happen on October 27.
At the same time, there is a curious contradiction in Ukrainian laws. On the one hand, if the government coalition is not created in the Parliament, the President gets the right to dissolve the main legislative body in the country, on the other — in the last six months of the Rada to disperse it officially can not under any circumstances. Conventionally, the “proportionality” coalition called “European Ukraine” was created in the Ukrainian Parliament in 2014. Initially, it included 302 deputies (with the minimum required 226), then — 281. However, over time, the coalition left the faction “self-Help” and “Fatherland”, as well as a number of deputies odnomandatnikov. Any little bit difficult question since that was resolved only by long and intense negotiations, as they say, evil online-languages — of the skid in the Parliament building boxes with dollars. The opposition constantly says that the coalition doesn’t exist, and the power tried not to discuss at all this inconvenient question recently.
Against the backdrop of the failure of Petro Poroshenko in the elections, the position of forces focused on him became even weaker. It is obvious that any attempt to “count” deputies in the coalition — is doomed to failure. Therefore, the newly elected President Vladimir Zelensky has a good reason to disperse the current Parliament. However it is connected by terms — if inauguration takes place in the last days of the mayor at the beginning of June, he won’t be able to sign the decree on the dispersal of Rada physically — deputies will appear “under immunity”. And given the fact that some time can take away the formal procedure itself (at least, with the Parliament you need to consult), the time Zelensky has very little. Therefore, his team began lobbying hard for the date of May 19, as the day of the inauguration of the new President
Their true intentions “zelenkovtsy” not even hide. Chief political consultant of the winner of the election race Dmitry Razumkov in the TV channel “112” directly stated: “the Dissolution is possible because as of today there is no coalition. The coalition consists of two factions. In these fractions there are not enough deputies, that is them there less than 226 (…).The Rada will delay the process of appointing the day of the inauguration, so that it is after the deadline when the Rada can be dissolved.”
Razumkov, however, tried to make a beautiful gesture and said that even with the current composition of the Parliament Zelensky’s team is ready to work and adopt “non-selfish” laws, but no one, of course, did not believe it. The antagonism between the newly elected President and representatives of the largest parliamentary factions is visible to the naked eye.
In the last few days, attempts by Zelensky’s entourage to speed up the process of taking office have become desperate. His team even launched a “video” in support of the dissolution of Parliament. Officially, the showman promised to pay attention to it when it gets a million views, but it is obvious to everyone that this is just PR-technology. The “new government” is trying hard to capitalize on the public support received in the second round of elections in order to put pressure on the Rada.
The work is carried out within the walls of the Parliament. The idea of holding the inauguration on may 19 has already been supported by the “Batkivshchyna” and “self-Help” who have recently been in opposition to Poroshenko. But representatives of the largest factions of the former coalition insist on June 1 or 3. The formal reason for Zelensky’s refusal to take office on May 19 is the fact that this date is considered to be the day of memory of victims of political repression in Ukraine. They say, to arrange the celebrations — is blasphemy. If the MPs fail to agree on the date, the right to the final say will be given to the speaker Andriy Parubiy. Given that sympathetic to Zelensky to suspect the hard head of the Council, will try to push the inauguration “after 27 May.”
Steal the country
To put pressure on Parliament, Zelensky’s supporters are trying to enlist the moral support of the “street”. Deputies prepare to intimidate the “anger of the people”, and the people actively convince that at it “steal a victory”. Here it is possible to play dexterously on emotions — after all the old, poroshenkovsky power anywhere, except Galicia and, partially, Kiev, the population can’t stand. Attempts of Poroshenko and his entourage “to cling to the power” cause special irritation in the Southeast. However, if Zelensky’s team manages to achieve this, the people seem to be waiting for an unpleasant political trap. At first glance, it’s hard to explain why “Zelenkova” obsessively trying to fight for the opportunity to “move” the election for six months. Especially since they are already morally and financially exhausted by the presidential race. And yet they have a reason to hurry and a very good one.
The “base” electorate Zelensky in the South-East saw it, first of all, “antipoaching”, the man capable of stopping an aggressive modernization and Westernization of the country, to protect Russian language and Russian cultural product.
In fact, Zelensky was not what the voters wanted him to be. He and his team have already openly stated that they will fully maintain the foreign policy pursued by Poroshenko, will continue to move to the EU and NATO, to assert that Ukraine is “at war with Russia”. The fact that Hitler’s collaborator Stepan Bandera is a hero for Western Ukraine, according to Zelensky, is “remarkable”. Nazi criminals from the UPA* the newly elected President for some reason calls “the winners of Nazism.” To conduct direct negotiations with Donbass Zelensky refused. And even with Russia, he is ready to communicate only through Western politicians.
In addition, Zelenkova has urged the US and the EU to enter against Russia new sanctions for a decision on “certification” of the residents of Donbass. And the future team “ZE”, according to rumors, should include marginal neo-Nazi characters like Semyon Semenchenko and Anton Gerashchenko. This is about the “humanitarian” sphere.
In the economy, everything will also be sad. Refusal to restore ties with Russia will not allow the Ukrainian industry to stop the fall. Dependence on international financial institutions will only increase. The main sponsor of Zelensky — Igor Kolomoisky — is already preparing to “skim the cream” from the conquered state, winning lawsuits for several billion dollars for the nationalization of “PrivatBank”. In addition, in the near future, at the request of the IMF, Kiev will have to raise gas prices again.
So far, many of those who voted for Zelensky are trying, including psychological protection, to convince themselves that they can not “throw” so cruelly. Therefore, judging by the data released by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), Zelenkovskaya technological party “servant of The people” is still a potential leader of parliamentary ratings. If elections took place at the end of April, their results would be the following: “SN” Vladimir Zelensky — 25,9%, “Oppositional platform – For life” — 15,7%, Petro Poroshenko’s Block — 13,9%, “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko — 12,1%. On the verge of the threshold with the result in the area of 5% would be “Civil position” Anatoly Gritsenko, “Strength and honor” Igor Smeshko, radicals Oleg Lyashko and Oleg tyahnibok. The basis for the formation of the coalition would become, respectively, zelencova.
The results of the recent may poll have not yet been released. But experts-sociologists already say that the rating of “Servants of the people” began to fall gradually. For six months, the people with a high probability can figure out what’s what, and deny the team Zelensky support by voting for the real opposition, and not for the pocket structure of Igor Kolomoisky and his partners.but if to dissolve Rada now, Zelensky will have all chances completely to usurp the power in the country for 5 years, having seized at the same time all its branches. Any attempts of protests of owners of the newly elected President, creatively using the punitive device built by Petro Poroshenko, will safely drown in blood as already did it in Odessa in the spring of 2014. So Ukraine will receive for the next five years “collective Fuhrer” in the face of a group of Dnepropetrovsk oligarchs.
Seeking legitimacy in the eyes of the West, these people will pursue a radical anti-Russian policy and destabilize the situation on the borders of the Russian Federation, forcing Moscow to increase defense spending. In return, they will have the right to plunder the Ukrainian population with impunity.
Whether residents of Ukraine will be able not to step once again on the same rake – will show the near future.
*November 17, 2014, the Supreme court declared extremist activity “Ukrainian insurgent army”, the “Right sector”, UNA-UNSO, “Trident them. Stepan Bandera”, the organization “Brotherhood”. Their activity on the territory of Russia is prohibited.