Washington sent to Nazarbayev master of «color revolutions»
The United States is preparing unpleasant surprises for Russia in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. With the appropriate caution on the page on Facebook by a well-known Kazakhstani journalist, Ibras of Nusupbaev.
The author’s fears, as he explains, are connected with the personality of the new us Ambassador to Kazakhstan William Moser, who is considered a specialist in «color revolutions». The current President of the Republic Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev received his credentials from him at the end of March.
As expected, nusupbayev notes, with this appointment, «the White House has started an active phase of creating an information network in the countries of Central Asia for the formation of protest moods among the citizens of Kazakhstan and Central Asia.»
To do this, he writes, «invite journalists who are ready to take special courses in the United States with further work in their countries under the guidance of experienced American curators.»
Recall, as the head of us diplomatic mission in Kazakhstan, 57-year-old Moser (his candidacy was proposed by President Donald Trump) replaced George Krol, who held this post since January 2015, but in September 2018 left him. The new Ambassador has been in the diplomatic service for 35 years since 1984. He managed to work during this time in Ukraine, Egypt, Suriname, Mali, Moldova, and other countries.
By the way, this is not the first time in Kazakhstan, as for some period of his career he was an attaché on energy and economic issues at the U.S. Embassy in Kazakhstan.Quite a traditional representative of the modern American political establishment… Supports the LGBT community — in 2013, as an Ambassador to Moldova, even participated in the first in the history of Chisinau gay parade. Condemns corruption. And the coup d’etat in Ukraine considers the movement of «the oppressed masses to real democracy.»
I must say that the interest in Kazakhstan in recent years from the United States has increased significantly.
As noted, for example, in his article, American journalist Martin Berger, Washington has already achieved permission to use the Kazakh ports in the Caspian Sea for the transit of its goods, and recently significantly expanded the diplomatic corps in the country.
I mean, the new Ambassador Moser will have his hands full. Given, moreover, the fact that his direct head, the head of us state Department Mike Pompeo recently directly called Central Asia among the regions where the States will undermine, as he put it, «Russia’s malicious influence.» For these purposes, the budget is expected to allocate more than $ 500 million.
But is it possible in Kazakhstan anti-Russian reversal in the same scenario that the Americans played in Ukraine?
— As for the desire, the Americans, of course, will suppress the «malicious activity of Russia», including in Central Asia, — says the General Director of the Institute of regional problems, political scientist Dmitry Zhuravlev. — Here about the results, there are doubts…
It is unlikely that Kazakhstan is now ready for such a turn. Because it can take two options.
The first one is Ukrainian. I do not really believe in it, because the standard of living in Kazakhstan is still not as high, on the one hand, as it was originally in Ukraine. That is, to call for individualism, for opposition to dictatorial power, it is good when you already have a fairly high standard of living.
Nazarbayev departed, but not so far departed. Kazakhstan’s elite, of course, is not United, but not split as in Ukraine into two clear halves — East and West.
Therefore, I do not believe that it will be possible to disorganize the current regime and replace it with another.
Another option is longer, but also more effective — is to change the signs of the elite, the way of «Westernization». Ultimately, Kazakhstan has always talked about multi-vector foreign policy. The question is not to cancel a vector, but to make it more meaningful. A landmark for the UK in the Kazakh elite has always been.
In other words, you can simply make the reference point to the West stronger than the reference point to the East. This is a more subtle work, a longer one. It crowds on the street is not created, but it is quite feasible that, in fact, in the Soviet Union was.
If luckily for the Americans (and Pompeo officer, commander of a tank battalion) will go on the first way — well, God will judge them. And, thank God, that under huge resources they are such idiots.
«SP»: — Explain.
— Just then they will make the Eastern vector in Kazakhstan much stronger. Because the elite in this sense is United and perfectly understands that it will take down all. And they are not going to leave, so they are consolidating.
An attempt to disorganize the country, in the end, will work precisely to strengthen Russian influence, not to weaken it.
If they are smart enough to go a more subtle way, then problems are possible. «Fork» — vector Pro-Western or Pro-Eastern, she always was in Kazakhstan. But until now, the choice was determined by the position of the Elbasy, who understood that without the East, the West does not work.
Now, when he departs from active activities, «Westernization» of the elite of Kazakhstan is quite possible. But, apparently, Americans go the first way.
«SP»: — And we, in your opinion, do enough to prevent the plans of Americans to raise another generation of mankurts — now in Kazakhstan? The same Nusupbayev, for example, repeatedly warned that in Kazakhstan «the same process began as in Ukraine in the 90s.» There are more and more publications «causing hatred to the Soviet history, to Russian culture», the theme of the so-called «Holodomor» is actively discussed.
That’s what I’m saying. This — the «Westernization» of elites and culture — takes twenty years.
And we, of course, need to somehow activate our policy. But from what position?
We consider the CIS countries as younger brothers very much. Here from this position — where supposedly they will get away from us? — a better activity to reduce it to harm us. As well as American activity to the detriment of Americans.
We in Ukraine on the same position stood, and therefore there the Ambassador was the former Minister of social protection (Mikhail Zurabov — an edition), but not the diplomat. The Ambassador-the accountant in Ukraine was at us many years because — «where they will disappear from us?»
When we stick to this position, the neighbors really want to move away from us — to prove that they are not worse than us.
Here if we behave with them as we behave, for example, with Germany, not forgetting for a minute that Kazakhstan is an independent state (a state in which a third of the population is Russian, having with Russia very large economic, social, historical ties, but an independent state), then we will not lose them.
But this should not be the activity of the «cultural elder brother». We offend people with it, and, equally both Russian, and Kazakhs. How should we react when Russia creates an image of the enemy there?
— We have MIR shopping Mall. We have information resources inside Kazakhstan. These sites must be used.
Recently, an official of the Kazakh Embassy gave me a book about how Russian Kazakhs were oppressed. It is very popular in Kazakhstan. Moreover, it is translated not into Kazakh, but into Russian.
But need to same its something to do…
Note that the «famine» at the time the President said it all: «the famine of the Kazakh people was not. There was a common tragedy of Russians, Kazakhs, Ukrainians in the course of cruel collectivization».
«SP»: — But the history, unfortunately, can be distorted and rewritten, which is successfully implemented in same Ukraine…
— Correctly. But for this, we also need to write it. They have half of the texts in Russian — so far, at least — who prevents us from selling our books?
After all, Americans also do not forcibly introduce their texts there. Not on the principle of «either you buy our book, or we shoot you.»
Who prevents Pro-Russian journalists from publishing in Kazakhstan? No, not yet.
Another thing, I say again, do not stand in a pose and tell the neighbors that they are «dirty chuchmeks», which we have civilized. And this, you know, in the expert environment, when you communicate, happens very often.
We still have in this sense so. Inwardly, we live in the Soviet Union. In a sense, this is clear and obvious. But we do not live in the Soviet Union — it must be understood and accepted.
I will allow myself a small digression… Here is a Kazakh historical feature film about a group of young Kazakhs who in the 17th (in my opinion) century are fighting against the invasion of the conquerors — it seems that they were Manchus. And they watch. Historical films, it’s nice, comfortable and not much brain load, I would say. But as a result of which the image of the Kazakhs and some of manjura?
Why don’t we shoot something like that? You see, the last film about the Russian-Kazakh friendship was about akyn Abai — it was in 1938 or 1939.
«SP»: — What about the eponymous movie about the heroism of 28 Panfilov heroes? It was removed in 2014.
Yeah, sure. This is important. But it’s not just about them. That’s what happened to them, but not them. Although a magnificent monument, by the way, is the heroes of Panfilov in Almaty.
And one more thing — sorry for the banality — is the spread. After all, until now, most people in Kazakhstan watch movies in Russian, not in Kazakh. But what? American… Italian… French… And our endless militia fighters, which are made according to American patterns, but without American money.
«SP»: — it Turns out, we are stepping on the same rake as before in Ukraine?
— Not to that extent, of course. The enemy was stupid too. But you can’t always expect them to do something stupid.
Well, it was possible to destabilize Yanukovych in Ukraine where any President two terms don’t sit. But destabilizing Nazarbayev is a suicidal policy.
He never left. He just left. He’s there around the corner — is…
So, what should we expect in Kazakhstan, given such activation of Americans?
Wait for what? Wait for a sharp increase in intellectual fermentation and youth fermentation, especially in Almaty — the richest city in Kazakhstan.
I can’t believe this is going to go to the provinces. Although there is the same problem: Moscow is not Russia, Almaty is not Kazakhstan.
There are Eastern regions — Kazakh Siberia, which is very socially difficult. But there, if anything, it will be only on social grounds.
If Americans now begin to introduce liberal ideas into the heads of Kazakhs, it will be only in rich regions. After that, the authorities of Kazakhstan will suppress it all. They are not Ukrainians, they have a different perception of reality.
Therefore, we need to increase our cultural presence in Kazakhstan as much as possible — we have enough economic presence. And the task of the Kazakh authorities is to survive, they will cope with it.
Another question is that getting now on the nose in Kazakhstan, the Americans will move to more subtle methods. Then it will be bad. «Westernization» of consciousness of elites slowly, but goes across all Central Asia, including, and in Kazakhstan.