Ukraine is on the Board
The armed forces of Ukraine these days conduct large-scale exercises in the Black Sea. Fighters based in Nikolaev of the 73rd marine center for special purposes of the special operations Forces of the APU, in particular, trained to take ships by boarding. This is stated on the public page of the center in the social network.
This is the third stage of such exercises. On April 12 special forces of AFU fulfilled landing on the vessel of landing from the air, and on April 18 the second stage of training began. «The basis for action on the water is teamwork in the first place and individual professionalism in the second place. No matter how qualified is the boarding group in their individual skills and abilities, if there are no skills to work as part of a coherent unit, the operation may end in failure,» commented on the exercises at the Maritime Center.
Apparently, in Kiev decided to prepare for the capture of vessels seriously. Perhaps so in Kiev preparing a response to Moscow for the detention of Ukrainian sailors in the Kerch Strait in November 2018. Then, we will remind, two artillery boats and a tug began to approach the Strait, ignoring the repeated warnings of the Russian side. As a result, the Navy ships were intercepted, 24 sailors are now awaiting trial for violation of the border. Ukraine, which continues to consider Crimea its territory, insists that its ships were in neutral waters. However, hardly anyone doubts that the incident was a deliberate provocation.
Perhaps now Ukraine has decided to get even.
It is noteworthy that the exercises on the seizure of ships began just a week after us representative to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison said that the Alliance intends to take «measures» and provide a «safe passage» through the Kerch Strait for ships of The Naval forces of Ukraine.
On the other hand, the incident in November 2018 was largely due to the election fever in Ukraine. Petro Poroshenko tried to use the theme of war to be re-elected. But now people have voted for Vladimir Zelinsky — largely because they are tired of militaristic politics and want peace.
Nevertheless, the expert of the Association of independent military political scientists Alexander Perengiev believes that Russia needs to prepare for serious provocations in the Black sea:
— By themselves, the teachings must be seen as a provocation. Kiev demonstrates the very possibility of capturing Russian ships. It is unlikely, of course, the Ukrainian side will go to the capture of a warship, but the trade — may well. Each civilian ship, after all, to put military outposts impossible.
Kiev is trying to stir up fear, to sow uncertainty in the safety of Russian sailors. In fact, we may face a policy of piracy in the Black Sea.
Director of the Center of geopolitical expertise Valery Korovin notes that the main problem of Russia maybe not so much provocation from Kiev as an inconsistent policy of Moscow:
— Russia, by and large, is not ready for provocations. Our seamen can RAM the Ukrainian boat or arrest their military personnel, but it not thought-over answer, and momentary reaction to a situation. And, from the specific captain of the ship who made this or that decision.
Moscow does not have a strategic vision of what to do with Ukraine, how to respond to radical force provocative attacks. This is what those who are preparing provocations are counting on. That the actions of people on the ground, not always thought out, will lead to any unpredictable consequences that can be used in the geopolitical game. And this is the biggest danger for Russia. Moscow relies on «perhaps» and the will of the case. On this weak spot and will fight, to try to capture the Russian court.
«SP»: — is There any hope for a new course of Kiev after Zelensky’s election?
— It’s not about who became President of Ukraine. Provocations will be associated with the globalist forces that control the processes launched during the presidency of Barack Obama. There is a common strategic goal — to tear Ukraine away from Russia, it has been actively implemented since 2014. The current Navy exercises are part of the «big game».
It is not so important for the world elites that elections were held in Ukraine and another President was elected there. If Zelensky starts to counteract the geopolitical plans of the globalist forces, he will have serious problems. The Ukrainian elite, which is loyal to the West, will start direct sabotage of the reforms of the new President and will prepare a plan for his removal from power. Actually, we see the efforts of globalists even in the US, who are actively trying to overthrow the objectionable Donald trump.
Russia should expect the continuation of provocations, aggression from major geopolitical players who will continue to rule Ukraine, not paying attention to the change of the President in this country.
Moscow should build relations with Kiev on the basis of geopolitical contradictions. Do not limit yourself to today’s events. And it will be a strong policy. It’s not about the figure of the Ukrainian President, but about big strategies.
Provocations in the Black sea will have the purpose to induce Moscow to rash actions. This is what Russia needs to avoid. At the same time, the response to provocations can be tough, but it is necessary to prepare for it. The Ukrainian side hopes that Russia is not capable of implementing such a strategy. In fact, we have seen this for the last five years. Instead of a clear position, Moscow often limited itself to thinking that the world is better than war, that it is better to trade, not to fight. And here is the vagueness of the Russian side is encouraging provocateurs.