Trump’s bluff: We will force Iran to ask for mercy in the negotiations
The Pentagon has developed a new plan to «contain Iran», providing for sending to the Middle East to 120 thousand us military army. About it with reference to sources in the military Department writes The New York Times.
It turns out that on May 9, acting defense Minister Patrick Shanahan presented to President Trump a set of military response measures that will come into force if «the Iranian armed forces attack And then trump said that Iran will «suffer greatly» if the authorities of the country «take rash steps».
On what Brigadier General of the Iranian Islamic revolutionary guard corps (IRGC) Amir Ali hadjizade, for his part, promised to strike the US «a blow directly to the head.»
That is, it is obvious that the degree of confrontation in the region is clearly growing. And the prospect of a real military conflict between Washington and Tehran is literally hanging in the air. The only thing is that the Americans may just need some more important reason to «uncover the guns» and justify the beginning of hostilities.
And it is unlikely, in this sense, can be called a coincidence that Iran is accused of involvement in the recent series of explosions on tankers in the port of Fujairah (UAE). What follows from the report of us military experts who were sent to investigate the incident. They concluded that Iran had allegedly used explosive devices to attack oil vessels. However, this is all again at the level of «Hayley likely» — without direct evidence and details.
So, what, in fact, the Americans have conceived — another military adventure, or they just «play with muscles»?
Senator Alexei Pushkov believes that the States is preparing an invasion of the Islamic Republic in the Iraqi scenario:
«In 2003, us Vice President Cheney said, ‘it’s Time to take Iraq.’ But so «took» that they didn’t know how to throw. Now the role of Cheney performs Bolton, calling to strike at Iran. The Pentagon is ready to send 120 thousand soldiers to the Middle East, as in its time in Iraq. War is being prepared,» he commented on the situation on his Twitter page.
Senior researcher of the center for The study of the Middle East Institute of Oriental Studies Irina Fedorova, in turn, does not see new threats from Washington:
— As with Obama and trump, the States have constantly stated that in relation to Iran they have «on the table are» all options, including military. So, there is nothing new in their current threats.
The escalation in relations with Iran on the part of Washington is due to the fact that trump, after leaving the nuclear deal a year ago, considers it necessary to conclude a new agreement that would force Iran to abandon its missile program and active actions in the Middle East region. To this end, such actions are taken. But Tehran also cannot answer — otherwise it would show that Iran is weak.
And as a response, he has recently limited his commitments to a number of items contained in the Joint comprehensive action plan (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program, which guarantees the exclusively peaceful objectives of that program.
And at the moment we are witnessing, indeed, a new round of escalation. States declare the build-up of military groups in the region, sending to the Middle East more and more forces. And Iran, in turn, says it is ready to destroy the «us head» in the Persian Gulf… etc.
— I don’t think it’s Israel. Rather, I can assume that this is the American contingent, which is located in Iraq. Iran, in General, can strike at it, it is quite real. There are American units in Syria — where Iran can also do this. And, of course, to give some answer to Israel. But, I think, Iran will not dare to start any military actions against Israel. Because he understands that the attack on Israel will cause a sharp opposition of the entire international community. Moreover, Tel Aviv is not taking any action against Iran on its territory.
Will this «game of muscles» reach the real military conflict between Tehran and Washington? I think not.
— Explain why?
— I immediately exclude any us ground operation in Iran, it is too costly in terms of losses, and in terms of financial. They’re not going to do that.
On the contrary, it is worth paying attention to the fact that against the background of this escalation of tension, trump constantly talks about the possibilities of negotiations with Iran. Of course, the condition of the United States, but such negotiations are possible. He even offered the Embassy of Switzerland, which represents the US interests in Iran, to give a phone number by which the Iranian leadership will be able to contact him if necessary.
I think there is also certain copying of the scheme that the US has tried in relation to North Korea.
We remember that the degree of mutual rejection there also reached a critical point. And it seemed that the parties were about ready to exchange blows. But then negotiations were proposed.
It seems to me that we can not exclude such a scenario, which us President has already tried against the DPRK.
— But Trump has not achieved from Kim Jong-un those concessions, which he expected…
— Failed. And from Iran, too, will not achieve. But still, now everyone is saying that Kim Jong-un is a good guy.
It is difficult, of course, to judge what is in the head of us President, but we can not exclude it. In addition, Iran is also not interested in the beginning — in any form — of a military conflict. He has a very difficult internal situation, and he simply will not stand a serious war, despite the promise to tighten his belts, etc. the Leadership of the Islamic Republic understands this.
— Not survive, in what sense? Iran’s army is considered one of the strongest in the region, is not it?
— It’s not about the armed forces. Not survive regime. The deterioration of the economic situation may become so significant that the internal political situation in Iran will get out of the control of the Central government.
The budget has already halved compared to last year because there are oil sanctions. This is very serious for the oil-producing country. And recently, restrictions have been imposed on the Iranian metallurgical sector, which gives up to 10% of budget revenue. Iran can no longer simply sell copper, steel and other metals.
Therefore, the country’s leadership understands that not only stability but, perhaps, to some extent, the very existence of this regime in the event of a serious military conflict will be threatened.
So, I do not rule out that this is all a prelude to some kind of diplomatic dialogue. After all, when a comprehensive plan of action was concluded, there were communication channels for contacts between the US and Iran before the official agreements. Negotiations on this subject were.
Accordingly, we cannot exclude that, despite a hard failure of the official negotiations from Iran to the US in the AGREEMENT, such negotiations are going. And the worse the situation in Iran, the more likely it is that these negotiations will take place.
— But, as we know, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently said that the European countries (we are talking about the members of the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program) have only 60 days to negotiate with his country. If such negotiations do not take place, or their result does not suit Tehran, can the Iranian leadership refuse to fulfill the terms of the Treaty?
— Theoretically, of course, it is possible that Iran will refuse some more points of the agreement. Because those items, which he refused, not to be a crucial backbone for this transaction. Iran even explained what points it can then refuse — but not from the transaction itself, as he emphasizes, namely from the fulfillment of some certain obligations of this transaction. American military man.» Or if «Iran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.»
The publication notes that in this way the American side plans to surround Iran, placing its military in the border States. But we are not talking about the «direct invasion of Iran».
However, the last statement looks rather doubtful, given that one of the initiators of the proposed plan was the assistant to us President for national security John Bolton, the famous «hawk» and a supporter of the solution of any issues by force.
It Bolton, we recall, May 6, said that Washington will send to the shores of Iran a strike group of the Navy led by the aircraft carrier «Abraham Lincoln» and a link of b-52 bombers, who, by the way, have already arrived at the airbase in Qatar and even managed to take part in military exercises aimed at countering the so-called «Iranian threat».
Trump, however, denied yesterday the message of The New York Times, calling it «fake news». But, having an idea of the impermanence of the American President and his open dislike of representatives of the media, it is possible to assume that the irritation he caused the fact of leakage of this information in the media.
The pretext for strengthening us military contingent in the region, as we know, appeared after Washington allegedly received intelligence about Tehran’s preparation of an attack on us forces in Iraq and Syria.
But Europeans are doing almost nothing to maintain obligations to Iran, although, like, and do not approve of trump’s withdrawal from the agreement…
— As for the position of Europe, this position is quite difficult. On the one hand, European countries certainly want to show some independence. Washington’s pressure hurts their self-esteem and generally undermines the authority of Europe in the world.
But the closest economic ties between the European Union and the United States (the trade turnover between them is more than a trillion dollars) cannot be compared with the volume of trade with Iran, which is about 15-20 billion dollars.
Therefore, Europe wants, on the one hand, to save face. And, on the other hand, not to cause some economic, trade war with the United States.
In General, I think that Tehran is more focused on dialogue.
To a certain extent, they hope that the 2020 elections in the United States can lead to the power of Democrats, with whom Iran has much better relations, and then, perhaps, the priorities of American policy towards the Islamic Republic will be revised. And maybe Iran just wants to stretch the time before that.
I must say, Iran has already evaluated our plans for the «120-thousand landing». In an interview with CNN, the permanent representative of the Islamic Republic to the UN Majid that-Ravanchi called the report «psychological war».
According to him, Tehran is not trying to create a conflict in the region, because it believes that no one will benefit from such a conflict. The Ambassador also noted that only «some people in Washington and several countries in the region»can benefit.