The US war with Iran: Putin will allow Trump to make a fatal mistake
President Donald Trump made a very tough statement to Tehran. «If Iran wants to fight, it will officially come to an end. Don’t ever threaten the United States,» — wrote the head of the White House on Twitter. Thus, he confirmed that Washington is considering all scenarios, including the military.
In this situation, the king of Saudi Arabia called for an emergency summit of Arab leaders to be held in Mecca on 30 May. And the state Minister of this Arab country for foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, warned: «If the other side chooses war, the Kingdom will respond with all force and determination.»
There is more than just growing tension around Iran. It may well come to at least a missile attack by the United States and its allies in the Middle East on the Islamic Republic. Simply because, from Washington’s point of view, the situation has gone too far.
As reported with reference to the Iranian media, Tehran has quadrupled the production of low-enriched uranium. This «could mean that Iran is likely to go beyond the limits of uranium reserves established by the nuclear agreement,» the Agency notes. According to the representative of the atomic energy Organization of Iran Behruz Kamalvandi, this decision does not mean that Tehran will increase the number of centrifuges used, which is limited by the agreement on the Iranian atom. However, according to him, within a few weeks, Iran will reach the maximum allowable, according to the terms of the agreement, the volume of low-enriched uranium reserves — 300 kg.
If desired, this step can be interpreted as Iran’s desire to quickly acquire its own nuclear Arsenal. And thus become invulnerable for the United States — for example, North Korea.
America seems to understand the situation that way. And, perhaps, already preparing to befit the case of casus belli.
As the «Military review» notes, the sabotage on may 12, 2019 against four oil tankers passing near the territorial waters of the UAE near the Emirate of Fujairah under the flags of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Norway could be a provocation. Behind which is the Pentagon, Tel Aviv, and the defense agencies of the member countries of the «Arabian coalition».
The publication indicates that at the time of seven explosions sounded on tankers, in the airspace of the UAE was recorded aircraft tactical aircraft ovvs NATO. This refutes the version of the Western media about the «sabotage attack» on the tankers by the IRGC units.
Finally, this fact is remarkable. On May 21, it became known that a large Russian cargo ship «Sparta II» arrived in Iran. There is evidence that it delivered an unknown military cargo.
Recall, «Sparta II» — a cargo ship from the so-called «Syrian Express», which is not the first year carries out the delivery of weapons and food from Novorossiysk and Sevastopol to Syria. According to analysts, this time we can talk about emergency supplies of air defense systems (or spare parts for them) and anti-ship cruise missiles to Iranians from Russia.
In short, this scenario becomes a reality. The United States will hit missiles on Iran. Tehran will respond with an instant attack on Israeli territory. What will Russia do in this situation? After all, the Israeli and Iranian missiles will be flying, and — in both directions, literally over the heads of our troops over airbase Hamim?
And what will Russia do if Tehran tries to attack the border of Israel in the Golan with the forces of its contingent, which has been fighting in Syria for a long time? Where is the Russian military police, at the request of the UN, patrolling the Bravo line?
In General — will it come to a military conflict between the US and Iran? And whether it is Russia?
— The situation around Iran is acute, but it is very similar to another trump bluff, — said the leading expert of the Center for military and political studies of MGIMO, doctor of political Sciences Mikhail Alexandrov. — Let me remind you, trump was bluffing when the US had an aggravation with North Korea. And partially bluffed when the US, together with Britain and France, struck Syria in April 2018. That blow was much weaker than originally declared.
And now a bluff is possible. Another thing — the situation with a military bluff can develop so that it will drive itself into a certain corridor. In a certain logic of actions in which it is impossible to stop.
If Iran does not make concessions, if it continues uranium enrichment and withdraws from the Joint comprehensive action plan (JCPOA) signed in Vienna in the summer of 2015, the US will have no leverage other than a military strike. Or the Americans themselves have to negotiate with Iran. And Tehran has already announced that it does not intend to go to any additional talks with the US.
As a result, it turns out that the US has already cornered itself. Put in a situation from which there is no good way out. Or they go back to the old deal with Iran. Either they have to go for further escalation of tension. And at some point, this injection can break into a military conflict.
«SP»: — What do the possible scenarios of this conflict look like?
— It is enough for the US to hit Iranian territory once — Iran will immediately respond. Americans will not be able to stop. And strike again. Tehran will answer again.
If you follow a series of strikes on Iran, Tehran is definitely going to strike back at our bases and Israel. So, there will be an escalation with Israel. Tel Aviv will respond. And Tehran will respond. Including from Syria.
The main thing is that it will not solve anything in terms of Iran’s participation in the nuclear program. Without a large-scale war with Tehran, the Americans will not solve the issue. And if they retreat without deciding anything, it will look like a serious defeat for Washington.
SP: What should be Russia’s position in this situation?
— We should, I think, help Iran as much as possible militarily, technically and politically. To prevent Americans from achieving their goals. Thus, Moscow can help bring down the American Empire.
It is necessary to understand: there comes a critical moment. If the Americans now get into a fight with Iran and lose — the United States will fall down. This will be the end of America as it stands. It’s not even the Vietnam war. Then the US could still get out of it — of course, battered and plucked — but to maintain the position of the leader of the Western world. Because the global balance of power was different.
But now the West is not the dominant force. Now the balance of power in the world is different. China, India, Southeast Asia — all of them are able to live without the United States. And Latin America, too.
So if you lose, it turns out that hegemon collapsed. Akela missed, so to speak. And all the countries of the world will send Americans away.
It turns out that the situation with Iran is very risky for the US. This may lead to the fact that if the Americans do get into a conflict with Iran, a serious escalation will begin. Up to the use in the Middle East of very large contingents of us Army.
At the same time, the deeper the Americans will get — the less chance they have to get out of the situation victoriously. Because to conquer Iran — physically! they can’t. Only — bomb. Including — with the help of Israel.
Although what will remain of Israel after Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv — it is difficult for me to say.
«SP»: — What gives such a scenario to the Kremlin?
— The confrontation with Iran will be exhausting for the US. For us, this opens up an opportunity to resolve the Ukrainian issue. For example, by military means. If the Russian leadership, of course, decides to do so.
In any case, the situation is favorable for us. It is no coincidence that Putin said that Russia — not a fire brigade to intervene in every situation in which nothing particularly affect cannot. In fact, Putin is washing his hands. And it gives Americans the opportunity to make a fatal mistake.
As Napoleon aptly said, «when an enemy makes a mistake, you should not disturb him — it is impolite.»