The middle East is rapidly sliding towards world war III
The military and political situation around the Persian Gulf is heating up right before our eyes. On Saturday, the king of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud convened an emergency summit in connection with the aggravation of relations with Iran, reports SPA. As a source in the Foreign Ministry of the Kingdom told the Agency, the countries of the League of the Arab States and the Cooperation Council of the Gulf States were invited to participate.
Meanwhile, the Americans are preparing a direct military invasion of Iran. Truth, until — more on paper. Because they understand that they will not be able to repeat the «little victorious war», as it was in Iraq in 1990 or even in 2003. In the event of actual combat can drag on for years. And hit the rebound in dozens of countries.
«The us missile strike on Iran is inevitable and will lead to the opening of the gates of hell,» writes the Lebanese newspaper Ad-Diyar. And he continues: «Prepare for the great American-Iranian war.»
So what’s going on there today?
Instead of people while fighting the combat drones
All week long, there has been extremely disturbing news from the Middle East. Moreover, their main «supplier» was now not Syria, but Iran.
On 13 may, four oil tankers were blown up in the exclusive Maritime zone of the United Arab Emirates near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Minister of the energy of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-faith, of the victims in the exclusive economic zone of the UAE (200 nautical miles), two oil vessels belong to his country. At least one more — under the Norwegian flag.
The tankers were heading for the Persian Gulf. However, as hastened to assure Arab officials, no threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz yet. There are no oil spills, no casualties. But things can change for the worse in a matter of days.
What is important: no country or armed group has yet taken responsibility for the sabotage. But suddenly on Saturday, May 18, the Association of Norwegian marine insurers NSMWRIA reported that the tankers were attacked by a surface ship that fired on them fragmentation shells-drones.
The Norwegians blamed the attack on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. And although this, of course, can not be considered an official statement, still the fact is obvious! Moreover, the day before, on Thursday, Deputy Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia Khalid bin Salman directly accused Iran of organizing sabotage on the main oil pipeline owned by the state oil company Saudi Aramco. According to the Minister of energy Khalid al-faith, the pipeline was also attacked by drones with explosives from the territory of Yemen, which is controlled by the Houthi rebels from the Ansar Allah movement. It is believed that Tehran supports them with finances and arms.
Aramco was forced to suspend the pumping of oil through the exploded pipeline (but oil production did not stop).
Saudi Arabia’s response to the «Iranian» sabotage was not long in coming. Saudi combat aircraft immediately attacked the Yemeni capital of Sana’a. The result of this missile and bomb attack was a large number of civilian casualties. Among the wounded — and two citizens of Russia.
In words, Trump is a lamb. In fact — shark
Egypt hastened to Express its support for Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Israel was also an unwitting ally of these Arab States. According to the influential newspaper The New York Times, Israeli intelligence agencies have provided Washington with intelligence on Iran’s readiness to strike at U.S. targets and their allies in the Persian Gulf.
Many officials, including UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Responded to the growing tensions around Iran. American President Donald Trump, who previously spoke about Iran exclusively in an aggressive tone — and he said that they say, is not interested in direct armed conflict with Iran.
However, the words of the American President demonstratively contrast sharply with the actions of the Pentagon: the United States sent to the Persian Gulf a squadron led by aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, on Board of which almost a hundred combat and reconnaissance aircraft and helicopters. At the same time, The New York Times reported on the plan developed by the acting defense Minister Patrick Shanahan to send 120,000 American troops to the Middle East. In case Iran does attempt to attack us facilities or their allies in the region.
In response, the commander of the Islamic revolutionary guard corps, Hossein Salami, said that his country was ready for a direct military clash with the United States, which the major General called «a paper tiger with osteoporosis.»
Professor Roshchin: the war in Syria will seem to us a small conflict
About how likely the possibility of a direct military clash between Iran and the United States, «Free press» spoke with an expert on the Middle East, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental studies Mikhail Roshchin.
— I see nothing but mutual threats. Americans usually prepare for a major war. For example, although George W. Bush was often criticized for his lack of intelligence, he prepared the invasion of Iraq very carefully. Formed a coalition and have achieved some degree of international support. There is nothing like this yet. Perhaps Americans more hope for military help from Europe and the Arab monarchies? The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and even Egypt have already expressed their readiness to fight!
— Of those countries that you named, only Egypt was able to lead normal fighting. But it is hard to believe that he is ready to engage in a full-scale war with Iran. Why Cairo? It is not clear!
The ground operation in Iran has not yet been prepared. And if suddenly will start just will not «walk» as us invasion of Iraq. Then the Americans managed to «buy» on their side many Iraqi generals, including the head of the defense of Baghdad. With Iran, this will not pass!
In addition, air strikes on Iran or war at sea could lead to a direct invasion of Iranian forces and Hezbollah into Israel. Then just all of us will not find it!
And what can lead to a real naval war in the Persian Gulf — Iran has recently made it clear. I think the «hot» heads in Washington after that began to calm down.
— But why then continue all this «rattling armor»: Iran’s accusations of sabotage, naval maneuvers off its coast?!
— Now that Trump has finally strayed from the attacks of American Democrats, for him to get involved in a desperate adventure in Iran would be political suicide. I think in the case of Iran, he’s using his classic bluff and threat tactics.
But it is quite possible, I think, not a ground operation, but point air strikes on Iranian territory. But they cannot win the war — they can only anger the Iranian leadership.
In principle, the Iranians together with Hezbollah in response could aggravate the situation on the Syrian-Israeli border.
— the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei said that he is against the war. But his generals — on the contrary, strongly advocate for it.
— Iran, of course, is set up in combat. He has soldiers and officers who have gained combat experience in Syria. The Americans will continue to provoke Iran. But they, I repeat, are not yet ready for a great war. Although, of course, in the Persian Gulf is scheduled to slide to a new military conflict, compared to which the eighth year of the war in Syria humanity will seem modest size armed conflict.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a telephone conversation with us Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, during which he urged the US to act cautiously with Iran and not to escalate the situation. On Saturday, May 18, reported «RIA Novosti» with reference to the Foreign Ministry of China.
«We hope that all parties will maintain restraint, act cautiously to avoid escalation of tension,» Wang Yi said.