Russia or give up the dollar, or wait for the exchange rate of 94.5 rubles
The threat of new sanctions from the United States «presses» on the Russian ruble, causing its rate to fall lower and lower. Experts predict that by the summer the fall will accelerate — but that’s how deep and catastrophic it will be, and what will be the dollar, no one can even predict.
Trump lyutuet suffer Iran, Cuba, and Russian…
The US is steadily tightening economic sanctions against its geopolitical opponents. So, the President, Donald Trump and national security adviser John Bolton threatened to impose a full embargo against Cuba in response to the support of the last legitimate leader of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro.
Recall that such an embargo has existed since 1958, its gradual abolition in 2015 began President Barack Obama, but trump immediately after coming to power reversed the «Cuban thaw». According to Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, the «fault» of Cuba is that it supports the Maduro regime, opposing its peaceful abdication (and Havana in this, according to Pompeo, helps the Kremlin).
Also, our administration has launched a new round of sanctions against Iran. Under the terms of the «Nuclear deal» concluded in 2015 thanks to Barack Obama, the Iranian authorities had the right to exchange enriched uranium for uranium concentrate (yellowcake) from Russia. Now the state Department banned it, referring to the fact that in this way Tehran allegedly still continues to work on the creation of nuclear weapons. So far, we are not talking about toughening sanctions against Russia. However, people in Trump’s inner circle continue to rattle their weapons, in particular, Republican Senator Lindsay Graham, who called on the President to punish the Kremlin as harshly as possible after the release of the report of special adviser Robert Mueller on the impact on the presidential elections in 2016.
In General, all these political factors (most of which are even savvy in politics Russians know little) affect the ruble: the dollar is strengthening, and the ruble is weakening. Russian economists do not hide pessimism, predicting that by the end of the year the rate may collapse to 75 rubles per dollar. At the same time, American experts continue to play against Russia after politicians — for example, Bloomberg generally predicts the rate of 94.5 rubles per dollar. So Russia needs to actively get rid of the dollar. Although our country has taken a number of measures, including reducing its dependence on the dollar in international settlements, reducing the share of payments in dollars by 12.6% in foreign trade, nevertheless, the economy’s dependence on the dollar is very strong. Even if you take every Russian and then, this dependence will be observed.
Many people have a potbelly
How many Russians watching the exchange rate? Although the vast majority of citizens do not have savings either in foreign currency or in rubles, however, closely following a course not less than 60% of the population. At least, this is the data of the most recent sociological survey of the public opinion Foundation (POM) in August 2018.
Moreover, the proportion of those who monitor the exchange rate fluctuations, steadily increased from March 2015 (when she was only 47%). But according to VTsIOM, constantly refer to this kind of information at least 19% of all respondents (among men 25%, among Muscovites and St. Petersburg — 30%).
It really is not about personal savings (or, for example, savings for the upcoming summer vacation abroad). The population is becoming more economically savvy — and more and more people are realizing how their daily lives are affected by the dollar and the Euro. The evaluation of the same public opinion Foundation, 64% of Russians admit to it (and only 25% believe that no influence there). At the same time, 20% of Russians are consistently nervous and worried about fluctuations in the exchange rate of the domestic currency.
If such surveys had been conducted this year, they would have recorded an increase in figures. After all, there is increasing volatility of the ruble: and interest in it is associated with the fact that people choose — as it is preferable to keep their savings. The process of «de-dollarization» of the economy at the household level continues: it is expressed in a stable process of displacement of «hard» currencies from the economic turnover as a means of calculation and a tool of savings. This is clear evidence of the recovery of the Russian economy and society as a whole, — says the head of the Center for socio-economic research of the Institute of the sociology of management Oleg chernozub.
— I do not think that only 8% have foreign exchange savings, as sociologists point out. And such a gap between the share of data with savings and interested courses only confirms that something is wrong in this sociology, — says «Free press» senior expert of the Institute of economic policy Sergey Zhavoronkov. — The volume of short-term deposits in foreign currency by the end of 2018 increased from $ 15 to 23 billion, although the total volume of foreign currency deposits slightly decreased from 94 to 88 billion. That is, roughly speaking, nothing has changed much for the year: the share of foreign currency deposits today is slightly more than 25% (22.3 trillion. rubles in rubles and 6.1 trillion. rubles in foreign currency).
— That is, every fourth Russian has foreign currency deposits today?
— No, statistically, because deposits are not equivalent, roughly speaking I have one million, and the second million in a hundred people. But the Central Bank for some reason does not publish these statistics. However, savings are not equal to deposits. Most ordinary people have savings — it’s just a currency in the pot, not a currency Deposit in the Bank. And many people have this potbelly. Here it is rather necessary to turn to surveys about how many people have savings: two-thirds have them, and from here it is logical to calculate 25% in currency — that is, about 15%.