Russia is preparing to start a war against Turkey Damascus has already announced the date of the outbreak of hostilities in Idlib
Kazakhstan is holding another round of talks in Astana format. It is about the platform created by Russia, Turkey, and Iran to solve the problem of civil war in the Syrian Arab Republic. On April 25-26, in the capital of Kazakhstan, high-ranking officials of these countries, together with representatives of Syria and other guests, discuss the future of Syria and the availability of opportunities to bring it out of the crisis. The meeting can be called ordinary — there were already a lot of them, but it didn’t bring sense yet. Nor did the negotiations in the framework of the «Geneva format» supported by the UN and Western countries. Syria has been at war and remains at war, and some of its problems against this background are only getting worse. For example, the risks of disintegration into separate territories — there is a self-proclaimed Rozhava and there is the North-West occupied by Turkey. But here, it seems, the last problem in the near future intends to solve.
So, recently, the Syrian General and military expert haysam hassun said that after the Astana meeting, the military operation of the Syrian Arab army and the Russian aerospace forces against the separatists should resume. In this case, the goal is occupied by opposition militants Idlib, which last year was going to storm, but at the request of Ankara, it was decided to abandon the method of force. And so far, a real solution to the problem has not been found.
And here the Syrian General declares that operation will begin soon. In fact, this means a war against Turkey, which is doing its best to keep Idlib in the form in which it is now. For her, the operation against local militants has serious consequences. First, the loss of prestige. Erdogan has long positioned himself as a defender of the «oppressed Muslims», in this case, it concerns the Syrian opposition. If Damascus starts a war, and Erdogan does not stop it, then Turkey will not be able to claim the role of a leader in the Islamic world. Second, it threatens Ankara next batch of refugees. Hundreds of thousands, and Tom and a million Syrians will necessarily try to penetrate into the neighboring state, as there is simply nowhere else to run. This will create new problems for the Turkish economy, which is not in the best condition. So if Russia is really planning a war, it will have to fight not so much against the opposition as against Turkey. After all, it is in the interest of the latter that this will cause the most painful blow.
Russian Orientalist and political scientist Oleg Gushin believes that in fact now the operation is unlikely.
— Without the approval of Turkey and without clear coordination with it, this operation is simply impossible, if, of course, Moscow wants to maintain good relations with Ankara. Apparently, she wants to, so it’s hardly possible anything else. Because if this is done without Turkey, then it will turn out, of course, not a crisis, but a lot of trouble. Refugees, who are already one and a half to two million, will arrive in even greater numbers. They need to be fed, put up tents for them and so on. It’s all very expensive. But on the other hand, it is necessary to get rid of this «abscess» under the arm of Turkey. For her, it is also no good does not threaten — in Idlib many uncontrolled armed bearded men who nothing but to fight, do not know how. It is necessary as-that to solve. Right, it is not known how. But I think that if the operation really starts, then some option has already been found. This will actually be decided not even at the highest level — not above the Major General, I think. Can this happen in the South-West scenario? Then a large number of people who fled the war gathered at the border with Jordan, but the Kingdom banned the passage. After the end of the operation of the Syrian Arab army, all the people were settled on the territory of the Republic.
— Jordan is a different story. Refugees and militants just realized that the Jordanians will shoot, so no one took the risk. The Turks are unlikely to be able to take such tough measures — it will strike a blow to their ability in the future to draw on the role of the leader of the Muslim world. And the Turks are much more civilized people than the Jordanians, at least, so position themselves. No, it needs something else. In any case, if the operation starts, we will know that the parties have agreed. But now there are few real reasons for the cleanup of Idlib began.