Putin’s Successor. Who is he?
Until the end of the powers of the current President of Russia Vladimir Putin is still 6 years. It would seem that it is too early to think about what will happen next and who will be after it. But, nevertheless, all our enemies in the West have been counting the days and hours until May 2024, when his term of office expires, and associate with this date all their secret hopes for a change in the hard and irreconcilable course of the Kremlin.
Indeed, Putin stood them all across the throat, got a tough nut, you can sympathize, nothing it was not to get, no matter how hard they tried, all in vain, it became only worse. Everyone has already noticed that Putin acts like a boa, he is in no hurry, he is calm, but each of his new proposals is worse than the previous one. In hindsight, they understand that they should have agreed earlier, but excessive ambitions, like Obama’s, and domestic political complex circumstances, like Trump’s, did not allow them to do so. Note that I am talking only about the American component of the collective West, because all its other representatives have long lost their political subjectivity, and with it the political will, turning into a kind of jelly-like amorphous mass that hangs limp in the Wake of American foreign policy, unable to even resist its negative impact on their own national interests.
Therefore, from the recent summit between the leaders of our countries, which ended recently in Helsinki, I especially didn’t expect anything. The dog barks, the caravan of the Russian Federation is… (whose dog, I hope you understand?). Just after Helsinki Putin finally untied his hands, both on the Ukrainian track and on the Syrian, and the results of this you will see soon. The issue of SP-2 has been resolved in our favor, it has become the subject of concessions by the American side in exchange for some of our concessions on the Middle East track, which are also, oddly enough, for our benefit – we are also not interested in strengthening Iran in its eternal confrontation with Israel and only the balance of forces between these two opposing sides will allow us to continue our position as an arbitrator. Oddly enough you will hear it, the Russian Federation is not interested in the victory of any of the parties. Russia’s position is strong only in the middle! In the middle between the Arabs and Persians, between the Persians and the Jews, between the Arab world and Israel, and even within the Arab world between Sunni, Shia, and Alawite. This is the position of the arbitrator, whose opinion is valued by all. And this is the most valuable thing that Putin achieved after his lightning operation in Syria, returning us to its former influence in the Middle East, and with it in the world, because it is the Middle East, and not, as many here think, Ukraine, is the key to all the problems created by the West. Now this key is in our hands!
Tell me, who else could have done this? And then talk to me about the role of personality in History. Gorbachev and Yeltsin’s rise to power through our country back for decades, nearly destroying it into molecules. And only Putin quietly Sapa was able to collect it actually from oblivion when Russia was already one foot in the grave. Only his political will and cunning of a former intelligence officer allowed Russia to return to the top League of world politics. Therefore, it is not surprising that in the West they hope, just sleep and see that the second Putin will not be (you all remember what ended the voyage of Dmitry Anatolyevich to the Kingdom – we missed Libya then, and it was with our connivance that what happened there). Therefore, the figure of Putin’s successor depends more than anything.
How old will Putin be in 2024? 72 years. Like, still not very old, trump at this age is now igniting. But all perfectly understand that Putin won’t go to violation of the Constitution. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare a successor. But this, which with a calm heart to pass the Orb and scepter, which will never lose extracted blood and sweat, in the truest sense of the word, conquest, and will only increase and multiply them. It is clear that Putin was concerned about this task long before he took office for a deadline. And it is clear that the candidate was determined, or rather a short list (short list) of candidates was formed long before that. And it is also clear that about who got there, everyone could only guess.
I would venture to assume that I know on whom Putin chose. It is clear that this is only my assumption, but I am ready to present my arguments. All possible candidates you all know well. No one’s going to jump out of a fucking snuff box. Second, Putin will be gone. The second time we are not so lucky, so Putin could not take the risk, and the running-in of possible candidates began long before I sat down to write this text. All of them were tested at the grassroots level, in the lower echelons of power, some of them passed, and some did not. Now from all of them remained only one. And it is he who will replace first Dmitry Anatolyevich in his post of Prime Minister, who with honor, after hanging all the dogs on him, will be sent to a specially created for this position, and in 2024 Putin himself in his post of President. Do not worry about Medvedev — Putin, as you know, does not throw his own, especially a man who faithfully served him as an adsorbent all these years, absorbing all the negative that inevitably accumulates in such a position. This is the Putin man – all who have not betrayed, you can count on him all his life. He’s responsible for them. That’s his psycho. Examples of mass – from the late Yeltsin and Sobchak to Fradkov and … (here I put the three – there will be the name of his successor).
Now let us consider the shortlisted candidates (again, hypothetical, in my opinion, but my heart feels that I am not mistaken!). Strange as it may sound, but with all the wealth of choice of candidates for such a position was not much. And there were no dark horses. You know everyone well. You understand that for such a job anyone cannot take, a person must have anyhow what a set of qualities that balance each other. Putin’s candidacy also arose for a reason. There must have been other candidates. But time has shown that the choice was unmistakable and the only true. Putin now faces the same challenge. And he knows better than anyone what kind of person it should be. I hope there are no naive idiots who believe that such a choice should be given to the people who will choose the best of the list of candidates who decided that they deserve it, and delegates to him the authority to govern the country? Once you have been given. Yeltsin, Boris Nikolayevich. Still hiccupping and shoveling after him! There was also Gorbachev Mikhail Sergeyevich, but it was a mistake not of the people, and the decrepit Politburo which owing to the natural dullness put on the convinced idiot. The only thing worse than an idiot is a convinced idiot who is convinced he is right. I am sure that Gorbachev still believes that he did everything right, only bad uncles prevented him and did not let him finish what he started. Therefore, to give such a fateful decision at the mercy of the crowd – the limit of stupidity and irresponsibility. Fortunately, Putin is not like that! You will choose from the one on whom he will point, and he will point to the one on whom it is necessary! But the task to choose such and not to be mistaken is to you not to hand over the exam. Therefore, Putin faced a very difficult task…
In the long list (extended list) were all very reliable people. The initial condition was only the age (the candidate had to be relatively young – 50…55 years) and sufficient for the position professional skills and competencies (experience in public service, the ability to learn quickly, the ability to adapt to changing conditions, the ability to work in multitasking mode, a portfolio of personal successful projects and achievements, or not successful, from which he found a way out, plus the personal qualities necessary for such a difficult position). As a result, six were shortlisted. Next, bring in random order, not according to the degree of compliance with the proposed positions.
1. Rogozin Dmitry Olegovich, (born in 1963), at that time Deputy Prime Minister in the government of Medvedev, in charge of the MIC, «the main hawk of Russian foreign policy» according to Forbes magazine. At the moment, since May 2018, he heads the state Corporation Roscosmos.
2. Kozak Dmitry, (born in 1958), another Deputy Chairman of the Russian Government, supervising everything from industry and fuel and energy to the new subjects of the Russian Federation — Sevastopol and Crimea. At the moment, the status has not changed, more powers have been added.
3. Kirienko Sergey, (born in 1962), Hero of Russia (closed Decree 2018), at that time gene. Director of the State Corporation «Rosatom», «kinder surprise», who managed to work as the youngest Prime Minister in the era of EBN and involved in the internal default of 1998 (who took responsibility for it). Since October 2016 — 1st Deputy head of the AP of the Russian Federation (presidential Administration).
4. Tkachev Alexander, (born in 1960), at that time the Governor of the Krasnodar territory, later took the post of Minister of agriculture in the government of Medvedev. Since may 2018, he has been released from his post and is currently in the government reserve.
5. Vorobyov Andrey, (born in 1970), Governor of the Moscow region. The man Shoigu, worked under him as his assistant, when he served as Deputy Chairman of the Russian government in 2000 (Shoigu calls his godfather in politics).
6. Last, but not the last on the list — Dyumin Alexei G., (1972), Hero of Russia (a secret Decree, 2016), Lieutenant-General, at the time of exposure in the long list of the Deputy head of the GRU, later the commander of the Special Operations Forces (SSO, Federation), Deputy Minister of defence of the Russian Federation. With 2016 – the Governor of the Tula region. But his main advantage – was a personal adjutant of GDP when he was still Prime Minister in 1999, headed the personal protection of GDP in the SBP at the FSO of the Russian Federation (the Security Service of the President, part of the Federal Security Service). Putin’s Man!
If you ask me what is not on my list Sobyanin Sergei Semenovich, mayor of Moscow, I answer – business Executive, not a politician. He’s doing a great job in his area of responsibility. Foolish to change! Man in his place!
According to the above candidates, the alignment is as follows.
Rogozin – a long time in the cage, gave high hopes, but the President does not pull, the caliber did not come out, can lead or supervise the power unit under the future President (power copy of GDP, but without a flight of fancy, very predictable — strike out). Actually, it happened – the selection is not passed, the trigger was his removal from the post of Deputy Prime Minister and the transfer to the post of gen. Directors in «Roscosmos», where problems immediately began – the FSB is now working there, there are suspicions in the state. treason, the user is suspected of results to Western intelligence agencies, the secret development of hypersonic. Kozak – very good, crisis Manager, an expert in many matters, embroider bottlenecks, does not like publicity, a man of words and deeds (functional and psychological copy of GDP, quite admit this candidacy – put a tick). As a result, he entered the final three candidates under №2. First to replace if anything happens to candidate #1, which is below.Tkachev – I do not like, I can not explain why, purely physiognomically, the naked eye can see that pulled by the ears, stepping over the steps of the career ladder. Who pulls – do not understand. If the GDP – so he knows better, but I would not bet on it. But he didn’t. (I wrote earlier — as the water looked!). As a result, the candidate did not pass, as a consequence — the removal from the post of Minister of agriculture. In the future, only the post of Plenipotentiary representative of the President of Russia in the Volga Federal district shines, which is a step back for him. Sparrows – all good, only charisma is not released and remains Governor of the Moscow region. The reason for not falling into the final list is the lack of experience at the Federal level, given the requirements for the proposed position. In the final list did not get, but the work is not lost, as Tkachev or Rogozin, which is good.
Dyumin – is on the ladder ahead of schedule, the youngest among the applicants, has a number of preferences in front of them – a personal long-standing acquaintance with Putin again – the Hero of Russia, the decree is closed, but presumably for «Krymnash» and the departure of President Yanukovych with the «sinking ship» at the time the state of the coup 2014, the Only drawback, as Vorobyova – no leadership experience at the Federal level. In the final list fell under the latest #3. Everything will depend on his success in the field of the Governor of the Tula region. But at the moment – no! Follow career, (options are possible).
The attentive reader himself by process of elimination determined who was the # 1 candidate for a prospective position. Yeah, that Kirienko Sergey Vladilenovich, now gets used to my name. From my point of view, Putin chose it. Ideal candidate. Nordic character-seasoned, like Putin (also, by the way, is interested in martial arts – the owner of the 4th Dan Aikido). Workaholic, technocrat, passed all the steps of the career ladder, smooth, hard, absolutely consistent. Describing his professional and human style of behavior, various experts note his constant correctness, politeness, and courtesy — both in relations with supporters and political opponents; and in conflict situations, and with officials of different ranks. The reasons for this behavior are likely to lie in the family – Kiriyenko was born in a professorial family, his father, a graduate of Moscow State University, had a degree of doctor of philosophy, for a long time headed the Department of Nizhny Novgorod Institute of water transport engineers, which Kiriyenko and graduated. He has a successful experience at the Federal level, even in the internal default of 1998, his fault is not – it was the best of all possible even worse options out of this situation, which led to the unforgettable Victor Stepanovic
The trigger of the fact that Putin chose Kiriyenko, was the transition of the last autumn of 2016 to work in the Administration of the President of Russia, where he has already engaged in the formation of a personnel reserve for his own subsequent activities in a new capacity (it was under the leadership of Kiriyenko were held large-scale social elevators, more known as «Leaders of Russia», allowing to update the mossy leadership apparatus, inherited from previous administrations). An assignment Kirilenko in 2018 the high rank of the Hero of the Russian Federation, and, a closed decree, says only that Putin is trying to give muscle to his image of a nerd-bespectacled man. One can only guess for what such merits he is presented to such a high rank, the only thing that comes to mind is the participation of his Department «Rosatom» in the development of the latest models of military equipment, more now known as the project «Petrel» and the project «Poseidon». For those who have forgotten, I will remind you – this is a cruise missile with a miniature nuclear engine mounted in it, the project «Petrel», and unmanned underwater vehicles on a nuclear thrust – «Poseidon». This is something that deserves not only the title of Hero of the Russian Federation, but also much more, because Russia managed to create a new class of weapons, which is not what the probable enemy, and, in General, no one had and no! (And will not even 30 years!).Not the last advantage of this candidacy is also the proximity of Kiriyenko to liberal circles (in the 1990s he was a friend and colleague of Boris Nemtsov), which will clearly be positively perceived in the West. It is, in fact, was the only advocate of liberal ideas in the higher echelons of power, (and it started with Chubais!). That says only about the cunning and ingenuity of GDP in search of alternative ways of rapprochement with the West, because Kirilenko clearly falls out of the ideological mainstream of the Kremlin in recent years.
In General, we will see. This is just my assumption, based on personal observations of the latest changes in the government of the Russian Federation and the surrounding structures. You can take it as a basis, you can offer your options. I don’t think Putin will take them into account. In principle, the wait is not long – the trigger will be the change of the Prime Minister. Who will be the next Prime Minister – he will become President in 2024.