Nazarbayev has volunteered to reconcile Putin with Zelensky
Kazakhstan, as a well-known peacemaker country in international circles, can play a positive role in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This statement was made by the first President and national leader of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, speaking recently at the XXVII session of the Assembly of peoples of Kazakhstan (APK).
During the event, which was traditionally held in the capital’s Palace of peace and harmony, this time they were looking for the very formula of peace and harmony. The agenda of the forum was formulated — «the Formula of peace and harmony: social unity and modernization».
Therefore, the fact that Nazarbayev in his welcoming speech touched, including the topic of Russian-Ukrainian discord, is probably quite natural.
In particular, he noted that Kazakhstan has made a significant contribution to reducing tensions around the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as between Pakistan and India, Iran and Syria. And he offered his help in the reconciliation of Russia and Ukraine, expressing the hope that «all wars and conflicts end in peace. And it will end sometime.»
It is worth remembering that Nursultan Nazarbayev has repeatedly stated his readiness for mediation between Moscow and Kiev. Out, for example, the initiative to move the negotiations on the Donbass from Kiev by the «independent area» in Astana (now Noor-Sultan). And at a meeting with Putin in Sochi three years ago convinced the Russian President that Poroshenko is ready to make compromises on a situation with DNR and LNR, however to adopt the law on the special status of the region (that is one of the key requirements of the Minsk agreements) allegedly doesn’t allow it absence of the majority in the Verkhovna Rada.
That is, Poroshenko cynically lied to Nazarbayev, and he, like, naively believed, and even tried to act on his side as a lawyer.
As for the last conciliatory statement of the Kazakh leader on this topic, it unexpectedly coincided with the appearance of a very interesting «leak» on one of the popular telegram channels in Kazakhstan. Experts of the Information and Analytical Center for the study of social and political processes in the post-Soviet space of Moscow State University call it insider information. And it is there that Elbasy is now trying to organize a meeting between Putin and Zelensky (the Ukrainian CEC, finally, officially declared him the winner of the presidential elections) in the capital of Kazakhstan to discuss the status of the Eastern territories of Ukraine. Allegedly, Zelensky’s team has already given its preliminary consent, and now Nursultan Nazarbayev is trying to convince the Russian President to come to these talks.
Perhaps, of course, this is just an information duck.
But if such an initiative on the part of the Kazakh leader does take place, how much can it really lead to some important, positive breakthrough in Russian-Ukrainian relations?
This and other questions «SP» addressed to a member of the Council on interethnic relations under the President of Russia, political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko:
— First, I would like to say that the success attributed to the Kazakh leadership in the reconciliation of Pakistan and India, as well as Azerbaijan and Armenia, is, to put it mildly, a very strong exaggeration. Perhaps someone in Kazakhstan thinks so, but in the field of international relations, I think that the role of Kazakhstan is seen much more modest.
Secondly, everything necessary to resolve the conflict in Donbass has long been formulated, signed… and even buried. I mean, the Minsk agreements are Minsk-1 and Minsk-2.
What does Nursultan Nazarbayev want to add to this?
He wants to convince Putin to give up «Minsk-2» and just to hand over Donbass to Ukraine only because there was a new President? That isn’t possible.
Or he wants to convince Zelensky to meet Putin and, accordingly, somehow to meet Donbass? But, judging by statements from Zelensky’s environment, it too is impossible.
Therefore, most likely, this is all nothing more than some incomprehensible component, designed, apparently, to increase the role of Kazakhstan or its leadership. Either the former or the present or the future, which is likely to be elected in two years in accordance with the order of the electoral cycles in the Republic.
«SP»: — That is, the vector of relations between Moscow and Kiev with the new President Zelensky will not change?
— At the moment, there are no prerequisites for the Ukrainian vector to change significantly. Well, that’s neither action nor behavior, neither of the statements Zelensky and his entourage while it does not follow.
On the contrary, it is already said that Ukraine will continue to move to the EU and NATO. That, of course, contradicts the aspirations that were invested in Zelensky residents of the South-Eastern regions of Ukraine — Russian regions.
As for Kazakhstan, I have a strong impression that its leadership is haunted by the laurels of the Belarusian leader.
Let’s speak frankly… In reality, today’s Kazakhstan is very much like Belarus. From here, too, there is a flow of contraband. Only if European smuggling passes through Belarus, then through Kazakhstan — Chinese.
Kazakhstan refuses to purchase Crimean goods in the same way as Belarus does. And also, by and large, pursues a policy of «korenization» and soft displacement of the Russian language.
Passes there and the campaign to replace the Soviet symbols of Victory Day. For example, the St. George ribbon on the order of Glory, as part of the composition, on one of the monuments was replaced by a ribbon stylized under the flag of Kazakhstan.
And one of the Kazakh Ministers welcomes emigration from the country because mainly Slavic population leaves.
That is, I do not find here any special prerequisites for seeing something good for Russia in the initiatives of the leadership of Kazakhstan. So far, this is only the desire to become a mediator and probably get some bonuses at the expense of this.
«SP»: — And how, in principle, in your opinion, is the theme of reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine realistic in the current conditions? And do we need any mediators here, even such authoritative ones?
— Well, as can be immediately taken and reconcile? This is not a quarrel of small children in the sandbox at the kindergarten level. There is an adult caregiver to come and reconcile, anyway — by force or by persuasion.
There are international agreements, there are international relations and rules, there are entire international organizations that are designed to resolve conflicts — such as the UN, for example. If they can not cope, then who at the moment can reconcile Ukraine with Russia?
And what about the fact that in 2014, for example, in Ukraine came to power outspoken nationalists? That they broke, by the way, the guarantees that were given to Yanukovych with the participation of international representatives — the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, etc. the Fact that Yanukovych is the legitimate President — they wanted to kill, it really doesn’t mean anything?
May 2 exactly five years of tragedy in Odessa, when Ukrainian nationalists burned alive people in the House of trade unions. There were still Mariupol, Slavyansk… And still they destroy inhabitants of Donbass — military operations don’t stop there.
Tell me, how can you come to terms with those people who not only did not investigate all these crimes but frankly are not going to do it?
«SP»: — not only in the Parliament want to prevent to raise the subject…
— Well, on what basis, on what basis will we put up with them? What will it take? Give them Donbass? To recognize that they on a legal basis burned people in Odessa?
I do not understand this kind of vocabulary in the field of international relations.
Inside Kazakhstan, too, you know, there are quite powerful trends that can blow up the very society of Kazakhstan. Islamists are maturing there, Slavs are leaving there, this «korenization» is taking place there, and there is also a stratification between the rich and the poor, which is growing.
Let them deal with their own problems.