Last chance of Kiev: Zelensky will decide the fate of the rebellious Donbass
The similarity of the sound of words — English IPR (peace), which means «peace» and Ukrainian Spis («spear») make confusion in the current policy of Kiev in relation to Donetsk and Lugansk. Features of the translation of the expression «PiSu — Spis» can be interpreted in two ways, there is either peace or spear (war), but special certainty in the future relations of Ukraine with the Donbass, it does not make. Judging by the information reports about the first steps of the new Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky (the inauguration should take place no later than June 3, while the date is called may 28), his activities are reduced to diving with Russian politicians on the Internet on various occasions and the alleged scenarios of relations with Donbass, which is still called «temporarily occupied territories».
We must pay tribute to President Zelensky — force option and it pushes into the background and, unlike his predecessor Poroshenko, threatens new attacks on the Donbass and destroy «separatists». His current speechwriters, who are called «representatives of the team Zelensky» (before taking office, he has no right to make official statements), now voice the main theses of his boss and their rhetoric with the seeming aggressiveness is quite peaceful. That’s the current adviser on national security Ivan Aparshin («Free press» spoke in detail about this character on May 2, 2019) suggests that Kiev will be able to return Donbass in 5 years while claiming that the return of territories by military means is impossible. In his opinion, it is necessary to believe that it is coordinated with Zelensky, a similar operation can entail huge human victims, and partners will turn away from Ukraine. Actually, Zelensky himself spoke about the need for an information company that should change the minds of people in the Donbass and affects their choice in their affiliation with Ukraine.
— It is no coincidence that Ukraine has now made a choice in favor of Vladimir Zelensky, — said political scientist, media consultant Alexander Zimovsky. — Figuratively speaking, all the other characters are pretty fed up, Postell in their broken promises and no reverence did not cause. And then Zelensky was the winning face, which fell on the inside of both East and West of Ukraine. He has not even managed to promise anything yet, but his messages to the electorate were received very positively. In addition to solving the economic problems that have stalled Ukraine over the past five years, he has brought a fresh stream in a possible solution to the situation in the Donbass. For the Ukrainians — is a sore spot, which seems to walk, but rubs very much. These are financial expenses, new victims, and a certain status of uncertainty in territorial integrity.
Let us recall, for example, the recent situation in Chechnya. War, blood, devastation — complete hopelessness. It could last is unclear how long the guerrilla movement no one has been able to break and even more so to eradicate. Chechnya was given the status, given money, presented a compromise for all parties leader in the person of Ramzan Kadyrov, the former, by the way, the fighter, but now «faithful Putin». Chechnya has become a full-fledged member of the Federation, its residents have Russian citizenship and enjoy all the public benefits, salaries and pensions, Chechens feel very comfortable in all Russian cities. Yesterday, it would seem that the enemy has become an ally. If Ukraine was able to take the Donbass in the same quality, then all the problems would have resolved themselves. And «Donetsk», which has always been traditionally opposed to both Kiev and Lviv, would be able to re-enter Ukraine as full-fledged citizens.
Zelenskiy, which is, in contrast to Poroshenko, does not want to «soak in the toilet» Donbass, we need to make a number of concessions, to some extent, compromise. Including for their fellow citizens, who need to show that in the South-East of the country are not enemies. To demonstrate peace-loving intentions to Donetsk and Lugansk and, at least, to stop shelling and open the buffer zone of demarcation for free movement. And what about Russia? Here it is necessary to build a format of good-neighborly relations and understanding of both common interests and building its own independent policy, to which Moscow has no special claims. Summarizing we can say that Zelensky must first «settle» with the Donbas. And this is what is expected of him in Ukraine itself.
Why is Ukraine building such long-term plans for Donbass in five years? The high bar is for the term of Zelensky’s presidential rule, which in case of failure will not receive further carte Blanche for the leadership of the country. But no one intends to wait so much time both in Ukraine and in the West and even more so in Russia. And Zelensky understands this very well — he does not have much time. It will solve the problem with Donbass and solve many problems in Ukraine itself.
Suspiciously strange silent in the US and Europe in response to the change of power in Ukraine. Zelensky was congratulated by trump, and macron and Merkel promised to help, expressed confidence in maintaining the previous course for European integration. But these are just words, nothing more. Russian President Vladimir Putin also does not particularly apply to his new Ukrainian colleague looks expectantly and without expressing special emotions. The cards in his hands. As an experienced player, Putin looks at the possible moves Zelensky with caution — what cards he will open. The main pick, of course, will be on Donbass. Zelensky, who received not the best inheritance, will now try to take some significant step to identify his status quo in Ukraine, — continues his thought Alexander Zimovsky. — He needs to show something real and concrete. With Europe, all that Poroshenko could have done, opening a half-stop Ukrainian zarobitchanam in the beds of Poland and Spain. Fairy tales about joining NATO, too, to a lesser extent are now concerned about the inhabitants of the «untrustworthy», especially since membership in the Alliance will need to pay a certain amount, which simply does not. Ukraine needs a certain surge of positive, awareness of its importance and, of course, improvement of well-being. Internal reserves are almost gone, the tranches of the West are also useless to wait, and no one promises. Strangely enough, all hope for Donbass. Not on his coal, namely as an opportunity to establish contacts with Russia. Zelensky not casually mentioned that after the words «goodbye», should sound «Hello» — he will look for an opportunity to say them. If so — have more to gain than lose.
Russia is now waiting for steps of reconciliation on the part of the new Ukrainian authorities. In recent years, we have not alienated Ukraine as a good-neighborly country, and the actions of the Ukrainian authorities have caused confusion to a greater extent. It is no coincidence in this regard, and interest in the political reforms in Ukraine and the change of power in Kiev, and if we imagine at least a theoretical vote of Russians for the President of Ukraine, Zelensky would get here at least a percentage of votes from the «country of the aggressor.» The main thing — not to be mistaken in expectations. And yet — the world of Donbass, not a spear.