Israel will test the su-35 for strength in the new «six-day war»
This year in Ethiopia must complete the construction on the Blue Nile river giant gravity dam «, Higasa» (Revival), exceeding the Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP. To fill the reservoir, it will be necessary for the whole year to block access to water in the Arab Republic of Egypt (Egypt). Cairo is horrified and demands from Addis Ababa to stretch this process for 15 years, while the owner of Hidase — the state Corporation Ethiopian Electric Power agrees only for 3 years.
«We, in Egypt, have no resources other than the water of the Nile, — explained Professor Nader Nur El-DIN, an expert on soil and water at Cairo University, to the positions of the Arab Republic. — It has long been said that without the Nile river there would be no Egypt.» Indeed, Aare receives 85% of the water from the Blue Nile and only 15% from the White Nile.
Calculations show that with the introduction of the dam «Hidase» up to 50% of Egyptian farmland will die, which will put on the brink of starvation half of the population Of the country of the pyramids. In response to this threat, back in 2013, the then President of Egypt Mohammed Mursi said very clearly: «if the water from the Nile decreases by at least one drop, he, as head of state, does not exclude anything, although Cairo does not want war.»
Let us emphasize that water consumption in Egypt is regulated by the treaties of 1902 and 1929, concluded in the era of British colonial rule, and is based on the bilateral Treaty of 1959 between Egypt and Sudan. According to these documents are entitled to count on 55.5 billion cubic meters of water of the Blue Nile, and Sudan — 18.5 billion cubic meters. However, the river originates and gains strength in Ethiopia, which has simply been withdrawn from the Treaty process. Yes, then Addis Ababa was not even asked, but today 60% of the population of Ethiopia does not have electricity and water supply, so the construction of Hidase is a fundamental project for this African country.
You have to understand: it is unlikely the Ethiopian government will be decided on the construction of «Higasa», not having received secret assurances from Washington and Tel Aviv. It seems that not without prompting from the United States, between Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, the Congo, and South Sudan was created a special Commission to oversee the Nile project. This is not yet a military Alliance, but a political bloc aimed, of course, against Egypt.
Today, the bellicose rhetoric from the official leadership of Egypt no longer sounds so threatening, however, the military experts of Egypt and Ethiopia have already considered the potential of their armies, taking into account the possible participation in the Tel Aviv conflict.
The fact is that in an effort to support the last non-Arab presence in the red sea region, Israel has strengthened its diplomatic and military ties with Addis Ababa, is vitally interested in weakening Egypt, which, incidentally, supports Palestinian Hamas. The Jewish state, seeing in Christian Ethiopia (the predominant religion) the enemy of the Muslim world in the region, even helped Emperor Haile Selassie until his overthrow in 1973.
Thus, the fact that in May 2018, the representatives of Cairo and Addis Ababa promised «not to harm each other» does not mean anything. Like Mohammed Mursi, the current President of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Sisi, also vowed to his people not to harm the water resources of Egypt.
But for Ethiopia, it is also a matter of survival. Thanks to the reservoir, about 60 million Ethiopian citizens, including farmers, will have access to water from the Blue Nile. In particular, the government plans to lay 245,000 hectares of state irrigated sugar plantations.
Whatever Abdel Sisi Says now, Egypt will certainly lose up to half of its water resources. The problem for Cairo is complicated by the fact that there is no common border between Egypt and Ethiopia, and South Sudan and Somalia will not open air and land corridors.
In turn, this circumstance can lead to a confrontation with Israel, despite the current warming of relations between the countries. There is no doubt that the Egyptian Islamists will blame the Jews for everything, leaving no choice to the official Cairo. By the way, even the recent visit of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to the countries of the Nile river basin has caused angry mass outrage in Egypt.
In this regard, the forums ask the question: will not the six-day war of 1967 be repeated if Egypt starts a war against Israel?
Today, Israel can put against the 380-thousand army of Egypt about 176 thousand soldiers of the IDF. Although The country of the pyramids has a quantitative advantage, it is inferior in defense technology. However, even American experts do not promise the Jewish soldiers an easy victory, given the difference in the Navy is not in favor of Tel Aviv.
On the one hand, the emergence of the Egyptians new naval capabilities to attack the enemy’s coastline (the same «Mistrals» equipped with Russian helicopters) worsens the position of the Israeli defense army, on the other — the Jewish state lives on the principle of a besieged fortress, realizing that the loss can result in the loss of statehood. Therefore, the IDF, with up to 80 nuclear warheads in its Arsenal, will definitely use nuclear weapons for self-defense.
Thus, the possible conflict (if, God forbid, will begin), will be limited to local and transient fights, both on the earth, and on the sea. But neither side dares to invade enemy territory. Another thing — the air battles that will unfold not only in the areas Leventikos and red seas but also in the vicinity of the dam», Higasa». And although the probability of such a development of events is estimated by experts as not high, also to call it negligible, too. Perhaps that is why the Egyptian air force, like the Israeli air force, is rapidly modernizing its parks. The IDF acquires the F-35, Cairo — su-35 and MiG-29M, despite us threats to apply sanctions. If you look at the history of procurement of military equipment Country pyramids, the import of the party «thirty-fifth dryers» will be the first defense contract, when the Egyptians bought a real fighter superiority and modern missiles «air-to-air» to him.
As you know, the United States is for a long time the main exporters of military aircraft for the Egyptian air force, limited the supply of long-range interceptors. It’s like that to sell guns without ammunition — except for the decoration of the carpet. Meanwhile, even a small number of su-35 will have the most serious impact on the balance of forces in potential battles with Jewish aircraft. According to American media, Cairo has already bought a solid Arsenal of missiles «air-to-air» R-27ER and R-77, as well as hypersonic «killer AWACS» R-37M.
No matter how events develop in the future around the resources of the Blue Nile, in any case, the construction of the Hidase dam can lead to the first war for water resources in the 21st century. And, if the conflict does happen, the whole Middle East and North Africa will be drawn into the battle. Only then, according to the newspaper Real Clear Defense of the US Defense Ministry, it becomes clear whether America will retain its first place in the global arms market, or give way to Russia and China, at the same time losing leadership in the political world.