Iran landed in Syria in the American trap
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, in response to us ban on the export of Iranian oil, said that Tehran considers the withdrawal from the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) as one of the steps of effective pressure on the United States. He also said that he plans to visit the DPRK in the near future, hinting at the possible participation of North Korean physicists in the development of Islamic weapons of doomsday.
Recall: Iran joined the NPT regime in 1969, that is, 10 years before the Islamic revolution. However, not without the participation of Israeli intelligence in 2002, the international community learned that Tehran was secretly developing an atomic bomb under the cover of civilian nuclear power programs. This was followed by a series of sanctions and the oil blockade of Iran, which was lifted after the entry into force of the Joint comprehensive action plan (JCPOA) in 2015.
Representatives of the USA, Russia, China, Great Britain, and France, as members of the UN Security Council, as well as Germany, signed the JCPOA. In connection with the freezing of trump’s comprehensive action plan, Javad Zarif recalled the guarantors and that «the European countries had a year to make practical progress,» but «they did not do it.» Then why was to arrange this whole performance, if, in reality, only the United States decide the fate of the world. Of the eight countries that were allowed to buy Iranian oil, three are firmly out of the game. Thus, the Italian government, together with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras, has already announced that it will be from the purchase of Persian oil. Taiwan also took under the visor and reported that will not disobey the team from Washington.
At the same time, China, India, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea oppose the anti-Iranian sanctions of the White House. In particular, Beijing, whose imports from Iran cover about half of its crude oil needs, said it would «protect the legitimate rights of Chinese firms.» Ankara also refuses to submit to Washington’s pressure: foreign Minister Cavusoglu warned that the latest us decision «will not serve regional peace and stability.»
Meanwhile, on April 27, the head of us Central command, General Kenneth Mackenzie, said: «the United States will deploy the necessary resources to counter any dangerous actions of Iran.» Moreover, the US Navy has already received the necessary powers to detain vessels violating the sanctions regime. In parallel, buyers are pressured by representatives of the state Department and us Treasury. Overseas are confident that if it is not possible to reduce to zero Iranian oil exports, its position will be significantly undermined. After that, the hardest problems in the Iranian economy will begin.
In response, Tehran has traditionally threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 18.5 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass daily, which is about 20% of world production.
Therefore, now everyone is interested in whether the US and the Gulf countries have a variant «B» in case the events go according to the toughest scenario. Riyadh has promised to compensate for the volumes of Iranian oil dropped out of the market at the expense of bypass pipelines, although most analysts refute these statements. In any case, the insurers warned the shipowners that they would not ensure the tankers, no matter what flag they were flying.
However, the current pragmatic government of Iran, apparently, in closed meetings opposes any blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, despite the threats of «Confessors». However, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Islamic leader, appointed a staunch and tough Hossein salami As commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The more cautious General Mohammad Ali Jafari, who maintains normal contacts with the civil Cabinet, was dismissed. The sign is not very good for pragmatic Ministers, because the «party of war» has certainly taken up over the «party of peace».
It seems that around the policy of responding to us dictatorship, there are serious contradictions within Tehran itself. Realists believe that the war with America is tantamount to suicide. In turn, the IRGC is ready to fight the enemy, being the main beneficiary of Iranian oil exports and a key player in the national economy.
On the other hand, no one in Washington or the Middle East hopes that the Iranians will accept the loss of their main source of income. That is why the United States is making the appropriate plans — first of all, the military. It is curious that the military option of the Americans has acquired real after the defeat of the ISIL*. There is no doubt that us military intelligence has carefully analyzed the capabilities of the Iranian army, based on the Syrian campaign.
However, even the naked eye can see the obvious gaps of the Iranian Armed forces. Judging by the terrible losses in the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR), Tehran’s army clearly does not meet the current challenges. In particular, the head of the Department of Veterans Affairs of Iran Mohammad Ali Shahidi said that «about 2,100 martyrs, including 418 high-ranking officers, were killed defending the Holy temples.» About 7 thousand soldiers were injured, the lion’s share of whom became disabled or later died. We also add that there have also been frequent cases of capture of a soldier that tells about the problems with security in parts.
To make the picture more complete, about 25 thousand Shiite fighters, including Iranian soldiers and fighters of the Hezbollah group, fought in the SAR. According to some estimates, the guard of the IRGC left on the Syrian fronts up to half of its participating in the battles of the composition. At the same time, according to American sources, the army of the Saudi Kingdom in similar battles with the Houthis lost less than 10% of the dead and wounded, and the soldiers were slightly injured and non-combat injuries.
«Syrian experience (Iranian army — ed.) is a textbook example of poor planning and amateurish leadership,» concluded Hamid Zomorrodi, a military analyst with the world’s largest pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat. He noted the inconsistency of the units, the terrible disguise and the inability to use attack aircraft to support the defending or advancing infantry, as evidenced by the huge losses of the officer corps.
It is also striking that the actions of the Israeli air force almost constrained Iran’s activity near the Golan Heights, despite the seeming achievements of the military-industrial complex of Tehran. In other words, the IRGC in particular and the Iranian army, in General, is the «ideal enemy» for the American military machine. By the way, the Washington Center for strategic and international studies provided detailed satellite images of the location of all Iranian units in the SAR. So, us air force pilots have accurate targets in the territory of the Islamic Republic. Plus, there has been a rift between Tehran and Baghdad on a number of fundamental issues. Serious conflicts arise at the level of everyday communication. For example, in September 2018, Iraqi protesters stormed the Iranian Consulate in Basra and even set it on fire. Clearly, the Americans will take advantage of these contradictions.
To some extent, the Iranian military presence in the SAR played into the hands of the Americans. If the successful and high-tech operation of the Russian military in Syria strengthened Moscow’s international positions and even reduced the sanctions pressure, the fighting of the IRGC, on the contrary, bared serious problems with the combat capability of the Iranians. Given also that Tehran intends to ask Pyongyang for help in creating an atomic bomb (which is unlikely), Iran, unfortunately, has no effective and — most importantly — long-term levers to counter the American dictatorship.