Iran has issued an ultimatum to Russia, China and the EU
Iran spoke in the style of «we say goodbye, but we do not leave»: President Rouhani announced the 60-day refusal of the Islamic Republic from a number of points of the nuclear deal. Two months are given to prepare a new agreement, otherwise, Iran will begin to enrich uranium. Tehran decided to demarche against the backdrop of new us threats: they blame the Iranians for the transfer of ballistic missiles and pull aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf. What threatens the failure of the nuclear deal?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday about us fault in the situation around the nuclear deal with Iran. The state of Affairs, due to which the agreement is on the verge of failure, has developed «because of the irresponsible behavior of the United States, which has abandoned its obligations under the UN Security Council,» Lavrov said at a meeting with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif.
On Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that Tehran had sent letters to the five member countries of the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program (Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia), in which he announced the suspension of the implementation of part of the obligations. Moscow has already received a message, Lavrov informed.
These are two points of the plan: the storage of enriched uranium and heavy water. Iran will stop limiting its reserves of enriched uranium and heavy water used in nuclear reactors. Tehran gives 60 days to reach new terms of the agreement (including in the banking and oil spheres), after which it promises to resume work on uranium enrichment and modernization of the nuclear reactor in Arak. In such a tough ultimatum form, Iran has not communicated with its international partners for many years.
After the actions of US President Donald trump aimed at undermining the deal, Tehran’s response was a matter of time. Recall that last year, trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the deal and announced the resumption of previous sanctions against Iran.
As you know, the agreement of 2015, adopted with the participation of Barack Obama, removed from Iran previously imposed economic and financial sanctions by the UN Security Council, the United States, and the European Union. Trump also «rolled back the situation» – restored not just the previous sanctions against Tehran, but also the secondary sanctions that are imposed on any country for joint business with Iran. Washington set out to reduce the export of Iranian oil to zero, that is, to prohibit other countries from buying it.
«Today, Iran’s patience is over,
and retaliatory measures were taken,» Alexander Vavilov, Professor of the Diplomatic Academy, extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Envoy of the II class, told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
At the same time, we note that Iran, although saying goodbye to certain points, but emphasizes that it does not intend to leave the entire SPVD – this was said by the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Zarif.
International mediators from the five began to react to Iran’s decision, thanks to which a nuclear deal was concluded in 2015, after 10 years of difficult negotiations. A rather violent reaction in France. The defense Minister Florence Parlee already at partial output SPUD of Tehran threatened Iran with new sanctions. «To date, nothing can be worse than Iran’s exit from the deal,» parley Reuters quoted.
Moscow and Beijing diplomatically expressed hope that the deal will be kept. China called for the full implementation of the provisions of the MAP. And the Russian Senator, the head of the profile Committee on foreign Affairs Konstantin Kosachev explained: «non-Compliance with the agreements on the limitation of stocks of enriched uranium and heavy water does not directly lead to significant consequences.»
«But the promise to return to the modernization of the nuclear reactor on heavy water in Arak, which can be used to develop weapons-grade plutonium, can actually lead to the failure of the deal,» Kosachev said on his Facebook page. The Senator stressed that he does not welcome the decision of Iran, as everyone would like to «certainly keep the deal on the Iranian nuclear program», but considers it quite understandable.
The reaction of Israel, which is in extremely strained relations with Iran, was expected. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: «I heard that Iran intends to continue its nuclear program… We will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. We will continue to fight those who would like to kill us.»
What are the consequences of the destruction of the agreement, which was called historic in 2015?
«Tehran’s decision is bad. Anyway, there will be a negative reaction from Washington (although they are well aware that all this provoked trump). Anything that concerns nuclear weapons, provokes a lot of different consequences, including the neighbors of Iran will start screaming again. But the Iranians can be understood, they were provoked to this case,» – said the newspaper VIEW political scientist, head of research Institute «Dialogue of civilizations» Alexei Malashenko.
At the same time, the expert noted that he did not have full confidence that Iran had clearly followed its obligations under the JCPOA, as officially stated. In any case, Iran considered itself entitled to «partially withdraw».
«But what alternative, what in return? Washington wanted to get a new round of tension? They got it. Here we can expect the saddest consequences, because we are talking about the nuclear program,» — said political scientist Alexander Vavilov.
Recently, the US has significantly increased activity in the Persian Gulf region, clearly wanting to increase pressure on Iran. First, trump’s national security adviser John Bolton said that the US is sent to the shores of Iran aircraft carrier «Abraham Lincoln» and bombers, and then the Pentagon said about the «obvious evidence» of Iran’s preparation of an attack on us forces. Then in Washington reported on the transfer of Iran on ships in the Persian Gulf region of short-range ballistic missiles.
Washington believes that Tehran is able to threaten the US forces or their allies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar or Bahrain with these missiles. Also, the possibility of an Iranian strike on us military in Iraq or Syria is not excluded. According to CNN sources, the Pentagon is considering the possibility of transferring additional forces to the region, including air defense systems (for example, Patriot missile systems).
Against this background, the head of us states Department Mike Pompeo canceled an official visit to Berlin and visited Baghdad, where he met with Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abd al-Mahdi because of the «escalation of Iran’s actions». According to sources, Pompeo discussed the lifting of anti-Iranian sanctions on energy supplies.
All this, apparently, is done in response to the «Iranian threat», which trumpets the American press. Almost simultaneously with the statement of the Iranian leaders on the partial withdrawal from the deal, CNN said: Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to the Persian Gulf region by sea. We are talking about short-range missiles, according to sources of the American TV channel. In the United States don’t know yet, «Iran can launch missiles aboard these ships,» or missiles «transporterraum in order to apply the Iranian forces on land.»
Vavilov also considered unfounded suspicions of the United States against Iran. «The direction of American ships to the Persian Gulf is a direct challenge to Iran and a direct provocation from the United States,» Vavilov said.
«It is not up to the Americans to judge who will threaten whom in the Persian Gulf. With regard to ballistic missiles, the Iranians do not violate any agreements. This is a natural response of Tehran to the questions that arise after the increased tension and the presence of foreign troops in the territories close to its borders. This introduces an additional complicating element of tension in the situation. The whole world community should think seriously, there can be a variety of turns. The Iranians firmly say that they will not retreat from their own. And they are right because no one can accuse them of violating the agreements,» concluded Alexander Vavilov.
«This is not the first time that Americans have said this,» Malashenko said. – But the Americans send their ships to the Persian Gulf. I do not believe that Iran will use its ballistic missiles against the States or Saudi Arabia. These are all symbols, but symbols are dangerous.»