ERDOGAN DID NOT DISAPPOINT: TURKEY HAS RECEIVED THE RUSSIAN S-400
2017 politicians and experts were debating whether the buy Turkey Russian air defense is contrary to the threats of the United States. Today, all these arguments have been shattered by the harsh reality. The Turkish media circulated the video on Twitter with the Il-76, landing at the airbase Myurted under Ankara. On Board, the Russian cargo liner arrived the first components of the s-400 «Triumph».
The Turkish defense Ministry and the Russian Federal Service for military-technical cooperation (FSMTC) confirmed the supply of weapons.
«The delivery of other parts relating to the system will continue in the coming days,» – said «RIA Novosti» in the Federal service.
In total, Turkey intends to buy fours-400 divisions from Russia for $2.5 billion. 55% of this amount will be paid by the Russian loan.
Point of no return
Today can be considered historical. The entry of Russian weapons into Turkish soil becomes a «point of no return» in relations between Washington and Ankara. The Trump administration, the state Department and the Pentagon have repeatedly warned that they will impose sanctions against Turkey if it dares to buy Russian weapons. But the Turks did not flinch.
Americans signed by Erdogan and Putin in 2017, the deal did not suit for a number of reasons. The US believes that the S-400 is incompatible with NATO systems, which are equipped with the Turkish army. Turkey buys f-35 fighters. With Russian anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMS) in their hands, the Turks will be able to study the possibility of using the S-400 against American aircraft and pass the military secret to the Russians.
The third reason, which the state Department and the Pentagon do not speak out loud, is Washington’s intention to prevent the rapprochement of Turkey with Russia. Ankara is a key ally of the Americans in the region. On the Incirlik air, bases is the American fighter jets and dozens of nuclear bombs of the United States. The Turkish army is the second largest in NATO. «Giving» such a valuable partner to the Russians means depriving yourself of influence in the Middle East.
What sanctions can the US impose?
Voluntarily force Erdogan’s «merge» deal with the Russians failed. After a series of betrayals by the «ally» – a coup attempt, and support for Kurds in Syria – cumhurbaskani had no incentive to compromise. Given that the US supply of s-400 – A threat to national security, the White House has two options: either accept or impose sanctions.
To punish the Turks, the Americans have a number of options. The first punitive measures already imposed – Turkish pilots were forbidden to train on Ankara purchased the F-35. The next step could be a complete exclusion of Turkey from the F-35 program and a ban on their supplies from the United States.
The white house could also impose trade sanctions, raise tariffs on certain goods from Turkey. Last summer, because of the refusal to release pastor Andrew Branson from prison, trump raised duties on Turkish steel and aluminum.
The most serious option would be to disconnect the Turkish government from our financial system,
– writes authoritative Washington magazine Foreign Policy.
The destruction of the Turkish economy
Us sanctions may be «destructive to the already fragile Turkish economy,» notes FP. Since July last year, the Lira depreciated by 30%. Unemployment reached a record 15% in a decade, among young people – 27%. In the first quarter of 2019, Turkey’s GDP fell by 2.6%, and the budget deficit for the five months of this year rose to 225%. Against the background of the recession, the popularity of the head of state is decreasing. Last month, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost the re-election of Istanbul’s mayor.
The State Department and the Pentagon, not to mention the Democrats in Congress, will insist on sanctions. But the head of the White House, softened the rhetoric against Erdogan at the G20 summit, «may postpone the application of sanctions or even abandon them,» predicts the FP.
Expert at Turkey’s Yasar Nijazbaev believes that the US will impose sanctions that will hurt themselves.
The only thing the US will achieve is that it will lose Ankara as an ally. In Turkey, few people believe that Washington’s pressure is appropriate. In this matter, Erdogan was able to convince the citizens of the country,
– Nazarbayev told Tsargrad.
The expert recalled that the deal on the S-400 is more profitable than the failed purchase by the Turks of American patriot air defense.
S-400 is advanced technology and the best at the moment. Second, the deal involves technology transfer. Third – the price and credit.
The advantage of the S-400 did not hide and American publications. These SAMS cost $500 million, while American prototypes Patriot Pac-2 and THAAD would cost $2 billion and $3 billion, respectively. S-400 can shoot further and at the same time for several purposes and has a wider range.
Niyazbayev noted that the negative economic consequences will affect the domestic political processes in Turkey. In the context of sanctions, the dissatisfaction with Erdogan in the country will grow, which can exacerbate the split within the AKP and lead to early parliamentary elections.
Sharp «movements» of Washington will be disastrous for both NATO members. Cornered Erdogan may require the departure of Americans from Incirlik, as well as in 2017 kicked out the Germans. In the long term, everything can end with the beginning of Turkey’s withdrawal from the North Atlantic Alliance. Such a turn is unprofitable for the European Union because it will put it before a choice. The beneficiaries will be Russia and China, on which Turkey will focus more than ever before.