Obviously, the election in Ukraine, the new President of the country can expect new trends. Including — and in foreign policy. What they will be — time will tell.
It is clear that none of the professionals did take these plans seriously. And “nav’s attack” will definitely not be included in the textbooks of military art. But having reached to the Lieutenant General and a position of the Deputy Chief of the General staff of VS of Ukraine for some reason sounded them. Probably to demonstrate “competence” to the new President. After all, everything is so simple: “Just a day and our Donbass!”.
— In the Donbass, the current words of the Ukrainian General seriously no one took. Especially as similar plans of lightning approach from Kiev here heard more than once, — the known military expert Alexander Sladkov speaks, for a long time not getting out of Donbass. — Theoretically, the APU can run into individual wedges in the defense of the DPR and LPR. And even move a considerable distance. But nothing good in the end from such an operation will not. Stick.
Everything will end with the next “boilers”, which the Ukrainian army has received here more than once. And therefore do not particularly want to go forward, preferring sabotage.
There is another nuance, which cannot be unaware of in Kiev. This is a high probability to receive in response an operation to compel peace — already from the Russian army, which will not be idle in the destruction of civilians in Donbass. In Georgia, I still remember very well what ended their attempt at the armed seizure of South Ossetia.
Another “hawk” from Kiev in the rank of adviser to the President Zelensky, Ivan Uparsin, too, am anti-Russian rhetoric. And he keeps talking about a confrontation with Russia. “We do not change the course regarding the attitude to the war with the Russian Federation, it’s a war,” — said a former graduate of the Military Academy. Frunze (1985). At the same time, he has nothing new to offer in the tactical art. Says only that “the new authorities of Ukraine will continue the course set under President Poroshenko.” That is, the situation in Ukraine does not change — everything will remain the same. We can, of course, assume that the current statements of the Ukrainian generals are designed to prove their own importance in the eyes of the new President. It is believed that both are aiming at the chair of the Minister of defense. And therefore so talkative.
Zelensky, who is very far from the army as such, is being sold old postulates. At Poroshenko, it took place on “hurrah” and he didn’t spare money for AFU. The war in the Donbass spent more than many other areas of development and social security of Ukraine. And the generals seem to be just profitable to maintain the status quo, which can be provided only in the presence of the enemy with which to fight.
We recognize: since 2014 when the so-called ATO (anti-terrorist operation in Donbass) began with active at first military operations, the Ukrainian military received good experience and training. No matter what they were clamped in “boilers”, forced to lose strategic positions and retreat. The army fought, and, therefore, acquired some semblance of professionalism in the actions in the area of local conflicts. This applies primarily to middle-and Junior-level personnel commanders with military education and training. Officers APU “run” and “hardened”. Even in such a “war” on the territory of their own country in the battles with the militia.
They were sent, in the sense — sent to fight with the “separatists”. They performed their tasks. However, unlike mad nationalist battalions, tried nevertheless to use force within reasonable limits. Understanding that in a zone of a direct hit of their shells and mines civilians. And often disputed received orders on the use of force.
Such officers in the ranks of the AFU was not the vast majority. But they were, and still remain at the forefront, if you can call the line of demarcation in the Donbass. And these are those people who are still able to Express their own opinion and frankly “dare” to higher command in case of receiving orders that are considered criminal.
Having entered the presidential Cabinet after the inauguration, Vladimir Zelensky will surely find there so beloved, but now useless camouflage of Petro Poroshenko, in which he flaunted on the “front line”. And still a heap of military cards with arrows of the directions of the main blows which in a set were drawn by the Ukrainian generals for the “fighting” President.
Certainly, among these cards are those that have been performed Sergey Nevim for the “lightning” capture of Donbass. Or former Deputy chief of staff of the AFU Igor Romanenko, who called to capture part of Russia (“under certain conditions”). And many other Ukrainian “strategists” who have similar plans and now the bulk.
Sweaty camouflage predecessor Zelensky, of course, will dispose of. But what he will do with the cards — is not yet known. At least, his advisers strongly advise looking at them. For the good reason that whether sought?
Many expect from Zelensky actions to change the situation in the Donbas, where the war is at an impasse. Only the peace process and compliance with the agreements, including the Minsk agreements, can lead to real results.
It is clear that Donetsk and Lugansk not at once and not suddenly can again “make friends” with Kiev. After all, for five years they received “humanitarian aid” only in the form of shells and missiles. But the state of war all pretty fed up. Logically, it’s time to stick bayonets into the ground. But how to do it in Kiev is not yet understood. And therefore in the old way continue to sound militant plans.
Here is the former commander of The operation of the United forces (OOS), General Sergei Naev said that the APU can capture the uncontrolled territories of Donbass in less than a day. According to him, the key to victory — lightning throw to border with Russia and “there to be fixed”.
Like and check out the person at the time the most prestigious in the USSR and then in Russia military Higher military command school (Moscow VOKA, 1991). But the level of tactical thinking remained at the level of the battalion commander, able to see only the immediate task. Something like: “Tally in the fight, but we’ll find out.”