In the German, Parliament held the initial hearing of the project to complete the military conflict in the Donbass, which is called “Peace in Ukraine requires a new impetus.” The bill has already passed the preliminary discussion. As stated by the Ambassador of Ukraine to Germany Andrei Melnik, Kiev supports the new initiative of the Bundestag deputies.
“At the hearings in the Bundestag, initiated by the faction of “Free Democrats”, he supported the new initiative of liberals to activate the peace process in the occupied East of Ukraine: we are waiting for discussion in the Committee and the Plenum”, — quotes the diplomat “RBC-Ukraine”.
The document deals, in particular, with the withdrawal from the territory of Donbass of all civilian and paramilitary armed groups, the establishment of UN control over the Russian-Ukrainian border, the replacement of the governments of the self-proclaimed republics of the DPR and LPR transitional civil international administration. According to the author of the project — a member of the foreign policy Committee of the Bundestag from the faction of the FDP Renata Alt, the Bundestag should require the German government to develop an additional plan to the Minsk agreements. “The Minsk agreements are actually dead. It was important for me to give a new impetus to the process to move again,” said Alt.
The opposition believes that their plan should be submitted to the UN Security Council, which is facilitated by the election of Vladimir Zelensky as President of Ukraine, and the temporary membership of Germany in the Security Council. Kiev, of course, is particularly interested in the points relating to the dissolution of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass and the replacement of their governments by the international administration. However, political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko does not see any prospects for the new proposal of the German Democrats.
— There are officially concluded international agreements that have the status of a UN document — the Minsk agreements. The German Parliament cannot abolish them. And offer there can all, that anywhere.
To introduce international observers, police forces, to replace the local government with the power of the UN offers both Kiev and individual German politicians, and even us for the past five years. But the position of German politicians is not the position of the German state.
Democrats can insist on what they want, but they do not have a majority in Parliament. If a majority vote for this, which they do not have, then you can ask Merkel: “Madam Federal Chancellor, do you control your deputies or not? Or you do not decide anything in the country?”.
Then there will be questions. But they will arise not only for us.
“SP”: — Ukraine has elected a new President. Is the new leadership ready to implement the Minsk agreements?
— No. Zelensky said in advance that he would not carry them out. His view on how the Minsk agreements should be implemented is fundamentally contrary to the Minsk agreements themselves.
“SP”: — That is, there will be a continuation of Poroshenko’s line?
— Yeah. Zelensky has already said that in foreign and domestic policy will continue Poroshenko’s line. Than very “pleased” the voters.
“SP”: — And what are the prospects for the settlement of the conflict in Donbass, which has been going on for five years?
— There are crises that last for a hundred years. And no agreements help. From my point of view, given the almost collapse of the Ukrainian state, the crisis can be resolved only by its complete destruction. Ukraine as a state as such no longer exists. But some movements in Kiev are trying to make. This statehood is still internationally recognized. So everything is moving somehow. Although the government in Kiev does not control the country. And myself.
There will come a time when it will become almost impossible to give what exists there for the state. Due to the fact that no one wants to support Ukraine, and at its own expense it can not live. If no one wants to support a man, he dies. The same thing happens to the country.
I don’t see any other options. Because all without exception political forces of Ukraine which are inactive policy proceeds from the fact that Donbass has to be without any conditions returned to the structure of Ukraine. Even those who say that it is necessary to somehow fulfill the Minsk agreements when they are reached, want to fulfill them in their own way.
In the same way, all political forces of Ukraine say that they are going to return Crimea. They say — through negotiations. Because it is clear that they will never take anything away from Russia by military means. Rather, something further to lose.
However, in Kiev, aiming the return of the Crimea. While the Russian position is that this is not a subject for negotiations.
Thus, initially, all Ukrainian politicians take a position with which it is impossible to conduct any negotiations.
“SP”: — Even opposition politicians?
Even them. I do not know any Ukrainian politician who would say that Crimea is Russian territory. The same — on Donbass.
For example, Medvedchuk (now a second-rate politician – neither the head of the party nor the presidential candidate) says that it would be nice to implement the Minsk agreements. But even his own political force, that is, the party in which he is a member and, it seems, is a member of the leadership, does not declare consistent implementation of the Minsk agreements. They talk about some individual points, but there is no plan of implementation. Although the plan is spelled out in the agreements themselves.
That is, no one seems to have difficulties with their implementation. Because everything is clearly spelled out: the cessation of attacks, the diversion of heavy equipment, artillery, the raising of troops. After that, local elections, adoption of Ukrainian Amnesty laws, special status and so on.
Almost no one talks about the special status of Donbass. Even in Medvedchuk’s political force generally, speak about federalization of all Ukraine. But the federalization of all Ukraine does not cancel the special status of Donbass.
Gagauzia, for example, has a special status within Moldova. There Gagauzia is not the same as other regions. She has slightly more rights than the others. It’s more Autonomous. However, Ukrainian politicians are not ready to implement this norm of the Minsk agreements in this way. They’re looking for workarounds. But the special status is a matter of principle.
It is the special status that gives Donbass confidence that in case of its consent to the restoration of the former Ukrainian borders, repressions will not begin. Because the law on Amnesty can be adopted, and it is possible to cancel. No problem. That is, a special status provides control over their fate, confidence in the future.
In Ukraine, nothing much will change. It will be worse because it depends neither on Poroshenko nor on Zelensky. Just as the exhaustion of their own resources is getting worse. So we see that Zelinsky has not yet been inaugurated, he has not yet started his presidential duties, and his ratings are already beginning to fall. Although usually 100 days — this such “honeymoon” with people. Then just beginning: “What did, what did not?”.
Now Zelensky’s ratings fell down because the people expected everything at once. And, each of his own. Nationalists expected victory and prosperity. “Euro-integrators” — that immediately will come to Europe. Anti — fascists that the Nazis “Mozhaev” paddock, the war will cease. However, nothing has changed in the month after the elections. The disappointment begins. It begins because people no longer have the strength to endure.
This will not lead to a new Maidan?
— About the Maidan — I don’t think. Because the Maidan is after all controlled process, not the worst that can be. The initiators of the coup still try to keep the processes under control. And not to go beyond rebellion “people with light persons.”
The fact that Ukraine is in danger — it’s just a social explosion, which Pushkin called “a Russian rebellion — senseless and merciless”. People really have no other choice. They otherwise can’t change the power in any way. They tried. Came to one Maidan — it didn’t turn out. Went to second. It seems to have worked. But…
So I decided to vote for the clown. Allegedly — “against all”. But still the same people in power.
When the power isn’t pleasant, but with life everything is normal, suffer. And if the power hate and thus practically can’t survive when the communal apartment is more than a pension, it is already impossible to suffer. In such cases, no one knows when the spark will flash? What will be the occasion?
Against the last Tsar in Russia conspiracies arranged regularly. But when everything exploded in St. Petersburg in the winter of 1917, no one expected that it would happen now. Even the conspirators themselves. Although they worked for it.
And that it will take such a scale — they also did not expect. And it turned out — for several decades.
The situation in Ukraine is much worse than in the Russian Empire. And when people get desperate, any spark can cause flames.